By 2100, humanity is likely to face a paradoxical situation: demographic decline and aging in some regions will be combined with growth and youth in others, while technology, especially artificial intelligence, will become the main driver of the economy. The key choice is between the scenarios of \"too little, too late\" and \"a giant leap\".

Demographics: peak passed, the world is aging

According to UN forecasts, the world's population will reach a peak of approximately 10.3 billion around 2084, after which it will slowly decline, reaching about 10.2 billion by 2100. The main reason is the decline in fertility: in more than half of the world's countries, the total fertility rate is below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman).

This will lead to a radical change in the population structure.

• Aging. The number of people over 65 will more than double — from 857 million today to 2.4 billion by 2100. Their share will grow from 10% to 24%. For the first time in history, older adults and young people under 25 will be represented by approximately equal proportions.
• Leadership change. China, whose population is expected to decline from 1.4 billion to 633 million, will be replaced by India. African countries (Nigeria, DRC, Ethiopia, Tanzania) will become the main drivers of global growth.
• Migration. To mitigate the effects of aging, developed countries will be forced to either stimulate fertility or actively attract immigrants. Studies show that with a complete halt to immigration, the US share in global GDP could fall from 14.4% to 9.2% by 2100.

Technology: artificial intelligence as the foundation of the economy and war

By 2100, technology will become an integral part of the economy and security. Projections suggest that artificial intelligence and automation will determine global power.

Climate and resources: two forks

The future by 2100 will largely depend on how quickly the world moves away from fossil fuels. There are two fundamentally different paths.

• \"Too little, too late\" scenario. With current policies and slow response to climate challenges, the world faces gradual disintegration: increased inequality, rising social tensions, the degradation of democracy, and ecosystem degradation. Global warming could reach 3.2°C by 2100, leading to extreme weather events, droughts, and fires.
• \"A giant leap\" scenario. If humanity can achieve five extraordinary reversals (fighting poverty, reducing inequality, expanding women's rights, transforming food and energy systems), there is a chance to keep warming within 2°C and create sustainable prosperity. This will require unprecedented levels of international cooperation.
• Resources and collapse. Some system-dynamic models show that with current trends, global economic growth may peak and turn into a decline this century due to resource depletion and climate damage.
• Ocean currents. A separate concern is the risk of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation stopping after 2100 due to high emissions, which would cause a sharp cooling in Europe and changes in rainfall in the tropics.

Conclusion: an era of abundance or an era of decay

Projections for 2100 paint a not a single picture, but a fork. Optimistic scenarios show that with an economic growth rate of 2.6% per year and substantial investments in green energy, even the poorest populations can live at the level of today's Switzerland. The world will become economically 8.5 times larger, and the population will reach 12 billion.

However, without decisive political action, humanity risks sliding into a scenario of gradual decay, where technological progress and wealth will be distributed extremely unevenly amidst climate disasters.

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