No exact answer to this question exists because lifespan depends on the country, the level of healthcare, lifestyle, and numerous other factors. However, there are two main viewpoints on the average lifespan of children born in the 2010s.

Pessimistic view: few will live to 100

A large study published in Nature Aging in 2024 analyzed mortality data from the 10 most prosperous regions in the world (Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Australia, France, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, Spain). The conclusion was sobering: the growth in lifespan has slowed, and the probability of living to 100 for those born after 2010 is only about 5.1% for women and 1.8% for men. The most long-lived were the women of Hong Kong — their chance of reaching the centennial mark is 12.8%.

According to the authors of the study, further mass extension of life requires a breakthrough in the treatment of diseases of old age, not just improvements in general healthcare.

Optimistic view: 100 years is a real goal

Some gerontologists and members of the medical community do not agree with this view. For example, Chief Consultant Geriatrician of the Russian Ministry of Health Olga Tkacheva believes that modern children (generations alpha and beta) have every chance of living to 100 thanks to the development of genetics, biotechnology, and the trend towards a healthy lifestyle.

However, even in this camp, it is acknowledged that the WHO forecasts (for example, the expected lifespan in Russia is about 83 years, in Europe — 89 years) remain a more realistic benchmark than bold promises of 100+ years.

Comparison table

Conclusion

When talking about the average expected lifespan, children born in the 2010s will most likely live longer than their parents. But when it comes to massive achievement of the 100-year milestone, scientific data suggest that this will be more of an exception than a rule. Optimistic forecasts about universal longevity do not yet have a sufficient statistical basis.

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