No, that is not the case. The assertion that the poorest people in 2100 will live like those in today's Switzerland is an unwarranted simplification and is not confirmed by the models usually cited.

What the models actually show

The mentioned forecast comes from the Earth4All project's scenario of \"Giant Leap\". However, its results are incorrectly interpreted.

• The \"Giant Leap\" scenario is not a forecast but a \"what if.\" It is not a prediction of the future but a modeling of what potentially could happen if humanity undertakes five extreme reversals (eradication of poverty, reduction of inequality, expansion of women's rights, transformation of food and energy systems) immediately and simultaneously.
• It is about average incomes, not living like in Switzerland. The model shows that in this scenario, the average income per capita in the poorest regions could significantly increase. For example, for sub-Saharan Africa, the forecast is that disposable income of workers and GDP per capita will double compared to the \"Too Little, Too Late\" scenario. However, this does not mean reaching the level of Switzerland, but only a significant improvement over the current situation.
• The default reality is \"Too Little, Too Late.\" If current trends continue, according to the models, poverty in sub-Saharan Africa will increase from 500 million to 900 million people by 2100. In this scenario, there is no mention of a Switzerland level.

Scenario comparison

Key conclusion

Earth4All's forecasts are not a guarantee of a bright future, but a warning. They show that without radical and coordinated actions, the world may face increasing poverty and social tensions by 2100. The mentioned assertion is an potential outcome of one of the scenarios that requires unprecedented political decisions, not automatic future.

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