IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ASIAN COUNTRIES ARE AHEAD OF THE COUNTRIES OF EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA
I. A. RODIONOVA
Doctor of Geographical Sciences
L. V. SHKVARYA
Doctor of Economics
Peoples ' Friendship University of Russia
Key words: macro-regions, regional shifts, global industry, mining and manufacturing
In the global economic development of the last two or three decades, the weight and importance of the economies of Asian states are steadily growing. This manifests itself in various forms: in faster GDP growth in comparison with the United States and European countries, in the active restructuring of the economy to an innovative path of development, in the rapid development of the achievements of world scientific and technological progress, in an increase in the number and relative share of highly educated specialists in the population, etc.
This process has its own leaders (first of all, China and India) and outsiders, but the latter are gradually catching up with the former, and therefore the leading positions in economic development that the Asian economic complex is striving for are becoming even more noticeable. For example, in the crisis of 2009, when almost all European and North American countries in the key sector of the economy - manufacturing - production volumes declined, in developing countries of Asia they grew by 2.9%. This is less than the average annual growth of 6.8% recorded in 2001-2008, but the trend is important: the crisis slowed down growth in the processing industries somewhat, but did not stop it.
In terms of overall economic development results in the same year of 2009, the Asia-Pacific region, which includes East and South-East Asia, saw output growth of 7.7%, and South Asia - 4.8%, which is also quite a lot, especially against the background of the recession in the rest of the world.
On a global scale, in 2009, the financial and economic crisis led to a sharp decline in industrial production compared to the level of 2008. However, in 2010, world production of manufacturing products began to grow again and reached $7390 billion (18.2% of global GDP). It should be taken into account that the share of value added created in the industry of economically developed countries decreased from 17.7% of GDP in 1990 to 16.6% in 2010, while in developing countries this share, on the contrary, increased from 18.4% to 21.5% 1. Thus, it is impossible not to conclude that the 2008-2009 crisis had a more serious impact on the state of industry in developed than in developing countries.
It is important to note that during 1995-2010, both in developed and developing countries, the share of high - tech and medium-tech products in the structure of manufactured products increased. Globally, the share of products of this type increased from 41.3 to 55.8% (for comparison: in developed countries, an increase was recorded from 44 to 64%; in the group of developing countries - from 36 to 43%, but in the least developed countries that are just starting to industrialize, the share of such products in industrial production is even slightly higher decreased from 20% to 17%) 2.
However, in general, the processes and trends in the development of the global industry described in a number of papers 3 have not changed under the influence of the first wave of the global financial and economic crisis (according to some experts, the second wave of the crisis is still ahead). The Asian region in the global industry has become a leader at the expense of developing countries in this region and is no longer going to give up its position, ahead of both North America and Europe. However, not all countries in the Asian region are developing at the same rapid pace.
HOW THE PROBLEM WAS INVESTIGATED
Currently, almost 2/3 of the world's population lives in Asia.
population (among the most populous countries on the planet are such Asian countries as China -1.3 billion, India-1.2 billion people, as well as Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam). A number of countries in this part of the world have been developing very rapidly over the past two or three decades. Apparently, in the future, the main trend of global industrial development will remain the growth of production in Asian countries.
In preparing this article, we compared data on industrial production volumes in all countries of the world. At the same time, the following regions were selected as research objects: Europe, the USSR/CIS*, North, Central and South America, Asia, Africa, Australia and Oceania. The importance of research at the regional level is due to the growing role of globalization and regionalization processes in the world economy. These regions can be considered as established or emerging integration macroregions. The integration unions that have developed in them (the EU, NAFTA, ASEAN, APEC, CIS, common markets of South America, Africa, etc.) are characterized by deep economic, political, and cultural ties. 4
At the same time, we compared data on the production and exchange of products in physical terms, rather than in terms of value (i.e., by volume or weight of products produced, depending on the industry under consideration), by countries and regions of the world for the " key " decades: 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010. The situation in many branches of the extractive and manufacturing industries was analyzed.
The aim of the study is to determine the current vector in global industrial development and identify the leading regions and countries in this process.
WHAT IS CHANGING IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?
With the transition to the post-industrial stage of development (i.e., since the early 1970s), the leading sector in the economy of highly developed countries is the service sector, which now accounts for more than 70% of the GDP of these countries. The global economy as a whole also showed a tendency to reduce the share of industry in the GDP structure. However, the current situation cannot be described so unambiguously. In most of the countries of the world that are called developing countries and that are mostly just entering the industrial stage of their development (they are home to about 80% of the world's population), the importance of industry in GDP creation and the share of people employed in it are still growing. In other words, the analysis of international statistics suggests that the process of industrialization in the world economy continues quite rapidly, despite the transition of highly developed countries to the stage of post-industrial development.
We state two more important facts. First, at present, international trade is still mainly an exchange of various industrial products (over 70% of the structure of exports and imports). At the same time, the share of developing countries, especially China, in trade in manufactured goods is constantly growing. Secondly, over the past decades, production volumes have been continuously growing almost everywhere, and the range of manufactured industrial products has expanded. At the same time, regional indicators in different sectors of the extractive and manufacturing industries of the world differ significantly 5. Of course, the factors influencing this process are also different.
The current global trend of dividing many interrelated technological processes into smaller "components" is aimed at reducing the total cost of manufacturing final products and increasing the economic efficiency of production. The process of so-called "diffusion of innovations" contributes to the placement of various industries, including high-tech ones, in an increasing number of countries around the world.
Scientific and technological progress and competition in the international division of labor have led to increased specialization of countries and regions not only in the production of certain types of finished products, but also in the production of various components for assembly production. The appearance of the latest means of transport, telecommunications and logistics ensures the transportation of products from all industries, including parts, components and components, over ever-longer distances and in the shortest possible time. Leading multinational corporations (TNCs) coordinate the functioning of established international production chains and actually form the market environment.
Thus, the territorial and economic problems of the development of world industry in modern conditions have acquired a new quality. Asian countries are increasingly asserting themselves, especially its" Far Eastern pole " - China, as well as Japan - to which, in fact, their "industrial branches" and "workshops" in this region, which are largely controlled by these two countries, should be added - the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand.
NEW LIFE OF EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES
An increase in the output of all manufacturing industries in the world, the emergence of new industries and even entire new industries leads to a high and annually increasing demand for raw materials (primarily for energy resources) and it encourages the growth of mineral extraction. And the increasingly intensive introduction of material and energy-saving technologies, in turn, is changing the situation on the world market of raw materials. These two processes occur simultaneously in the world economy.
Currently, the positions of the main groups of suppliers of raw materials are clearly formed in international trade.
* Prior to 1990, data were provided for the former. USSR, and then - in total for the republics of the Commonwealth of Independent States( CIS), which was separated into a separate region. In fact, the "Europe" region includes all the countries of Western and Central-Eastern Europe, and the Asian region - almost all the countries of Asia.
products and their main customers. The natural resource potential and level of resource availability of the countries of the world are different. Analysis of statistical data has shown that the share of individual countries and regions in the extraction of various types of minerals in the world's extractive industry has changed significantly since the early 1950s.
The former leading regions have given way to others. The share of North America* and the European region, especially Western Europe, in the global production of many types of minerals has declined. But we note that these regions, although they have lost their former positions of leaders, have often not reduced, but even increased production volumes. And the decline in their share in global mining was only due to the faster growth of production volumes in other regions of the world. Thus, the" weight " of Asian countries grew especially rapidly in world oil production, Australia and Africa played an increased role in the production of bauxite and iron ore, and the countries of Central and South America also played an increased role in the production of copper and iron ore.
In the oil industry, South-West Asia-the countries of the Middle East - has now become the leading region. It may be recalled that it is in this latter region that almost half of the world's oil reserves are concentrated (OPEC countries, in general, account for 72% of reserves).6.Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have the largest reserves. The Middle East region has already accounted for about 30% of global oil production since the early 1970s (Asia as a whole accounts for about 40% ).7. The Middle East region also plays an important role in natural gas production, accounting for more than 50% of natural gas production in the entire Asian region (and the share of all of Asia in global gas production increased from 0.4% in 1950 to 28% in 2010 - this is the 1st place in the world). In other sectors of the mining industry, the countries of East Asia, primarily China, stand out with high rates of production growth.
The Asian region is currently the world leader in coal production (including hard coal-64%). At the same time, East Asian countries account for more than 55% of the world's coal production. Half of Asia's coal is produced in China, and this country continues to increase production at a very high rate. The share of Asian countries in iron ore production also increased , from 2% in 1970 to 52% in 2011. This was mainly due to the growth of production volumes in East Asia. East Asia also stands out in the extraction of raw materials for the aluminum industry. In addition to China, bauxite production is growing rapidly in India, Indonesia and Turkey8.
Regional shifts in the location of extractive industries cause changes in the geographical and commodity structure of international trade in raw materials.
The redistribution of production capacity in the sectoral and territorial sections is observed in almost all countries and regions. And not only in the extractive industries. The share of Asian countries in the global production of most types of finished industrial products has significantly increased.
However, the analysis of data in retrospect over 60 years allowed us to record the progressive economic development of Asian countries, primarily due to the development of industry in Japan, China and some other Asian countries. For example, electricity production in Asia increased 135 - fold during the 1950s and 2010 and continues to grow (while in North America and Europe it increased only 10-fold).9. The Asian region is now a world leader in electricity production, accounting for more than 40% of global electricity production. To be more precise, - 43.6% in 2011.10
The Asian region is also the leader in ferrous metallurgy. The region's share of global steelmaking increased from 4% in 1970 to 67% in 2010. The share of East Asian countries, which account for more than 85% of Asian ferrous metal production, increased over the same period from 3% to 52% of the world's output in 2010 (China's share was over 40%) and to 60% in 2011 (China's share was already 46%) 11. In the production of mineral fertilizers, the share of Asian countries increased from 4 to 50%. Asia is also the leader in the production of chemical fibers (about 80% of world production), and East Asian countries are the leaders (China's share is over 50%).
In terms of passenger car production, the Asian region accounted for more than half of global production in 2010. Moreover, China increased production to 10.4 million passenger cars in 2009, compared to 6.7 million in 2008, amid a decline in global passenger car production due to the global financial and economic crisis (from 52.7 million in 2008 to 47.2 million in 2009). In 2011, China produced 14.5 million passenger cars. passenger cars, and total motor vehicles - 18.4 million 12.
The share of Asian countries in the global production of heavy trucks increased to 75% (China - 50%). In the period from 1950 to 2010, Asia's share in global primary aluminum production increased from 2% to 43% (China ranks first in the world-34%), in cement production - from 8% to 80% (China is the world leader - 55%), and in refined copper - from 3% to 35% in paper production, the share of the Asian region increased from 4% to 41%.
China ranks first or second in the group of leaders in 21 of the 22 industrial sectors reviewed by UNIDO experts. The share of this country in the global production of many types of goods has increased significantly over the past decade. The PRC has become more integrated into global industrial product chains.
Among the leaders in the production of medium-and high-tech products (except for the USA and Germany), there are now several Asian countries - China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. At the same time, China excels in all
* In our study, the North America region includes the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) member countries - the United States, Canada, and Mexico. All other countries of the part of the world "America"are assigned to another region- "Central and South America".
22 industries we have considered 13. But other Asian countries have also achieved considerable success. For example, in the production of computers and office equipment, Thailand's share is 6 times greater than Brazil's share in the total production of this group of products in developing countries; India's share is 3 times greater than Brazil's share in the creation of electronics and components, and Taiwan is ahead of Mexico in almost all developing sectors of the world industry.
China ranked 1st in the world in terms of imports and exports of mechanical engineering and electronics products ($1.59 trillion and $933.4 billion, respectively). In 2010, 60% of China's total exports were made up of mechanical engineering and electronics products.14.
MAIN EXPORT TRENDS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Both in manufacturing and in international trade in manufactured goods, the role and importance of developing countries is constantly growing. Their share in global exports of manufactured goods increased from 20% in 1992 to 39% in 2009 and continues to grow15. Asian countries are the leaders in this process. Exports of manufactured goods on a global scale peaked before the crisis in 2008 ($12095 billion), and in the period 2005-2008 grew faster than production of industrial value added and GDP. Trade liberalization, lower transportation costs, and global value chains have been factors contributing to increased trade volumes, as has increased demand for industrial products directly in developing countries. This trend is likely to continue in the future, given the rapid growth of the economy of China and several other Asian countries.
Although developed economies still account for more than 60% of high - and medium-tech products exported, developing countries in general have also made some progress in this area, increasing the technological complexity of their exported industrial products. Their share in the world market now accounts for 35% of the world's exports of this group of goods.16
Until relatively recently, in 1995, the leaders in exports of manufacturing products were mainly economically developed countries - the United States, Japan, and the EU countries - Germany, Great Britain, and France. At present, the group of leaders, in addition to China, is India, as well as the Republic of Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.
A very fast-growing China has seriously changed the picture of the global market. Exports of this country showed an annual growth of almost 15% in the period 1992-2001 and almost 28% in the period 2001-2008. Note: including due to the positive effect of joining the WTO. In 1992, China was ranked 13th in terms of industrial exports, and since 2008 it has become a world leader, ahead of Germany, the United States and Japan, and continues to be 17. This country is also the largest importer, only slightly behind the United States, but ahead of Germany.
* * *
Thus, it is no exaggeration to say that the world is on the eve of the"Asian industrial age". In the global industry, there has been a serious regrouping of forces in the distribution of production capacity, the creation and exchange of industrial products. At the same time, the Asian vector in global industrial development is particularly clearly fixed.
The economy of China and the so-called new industrial countries is developing very rapidly in the Asian region. In this regard, the overall share of developing countries in global industry has also increased. However, we should not forget about the significant differentiation of the countries of this group in terms of the level of socio-economic development, the volume of output, the sectoral structure of industrial production and the share in the world industry. Rapid economic growth rates are observed so far only in a small group of developing Asian countries, while the rest are still very far from economically developed countries and are just entering the path of industrial progress.
1 Industrial Development Report, 2011. Industrial energy efficiency for sustainable wealth creation. UNIDO. Vienna, Austria. 2011. P. 149 - http://www.unido.org/index.php?id-1002049.
2 Ibid., p. 144.
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13 Industrial Development Report... P. 147.
14 China International Broadcasting Network (CIBN). Economic Bulletin Program - http://www.cri-russian.ru
15 Industrial Development Report...
17 Science and Engineering Indicators - 2012. (Appendix: tables 6 - 18). Two volumes. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation, 2012 - http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seindl2/ c6/c6h.htm
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