Well, what can I say? Well, what can I say?
That's how people work.
Want to know, want to know,
They want to know what will happen.
From modern hits
Introduction
In the forms of concretization of the abstract concept of "foresight", it is advisable to separate two specific derived concepts:" prediction "and" forecasting", Both contain a third specific concept - "prediction" (the state of a phenomenon or process in the future). But in the first case, the prediction is unconditional, it is characterized by the verbs "will " or"will become". And in the second - purely conditionally, instrumentally: "it can be or become under certain conditions", on which the researcher's attention is focused.
Typical examples of prediction (which usually goes by the name of prediction): who will win the election or in the match, what will be the dollar exchange rate, etc. By the way, it is "forecasts" of this type that only interest the customer so far, since other approaches are simply unknown to him. They are the focus of the work of almost all the "analysis and forecast centers" in our country, and almost all of them abroad. Such forecasts are evaluated "according to the degree of justifiability", which, in turn, is located on the scale: true - not true.
However, more than 70 years ago, the works of V. A. Bazarov-Rudnev proposed a qualitatively different, alternative approach to the future. And about 40 years ago, independently of him, this approach was developed in the works of B. de Jouvenel, D. Bell and a number of other Western futurologists into the concept of" technological forecasting": not" what will happen", but"what can happen with the observed trends and what needs to be done to make the most desirable happen". In fact, this approach should be called problem-oriented, because in practice, extrapolating observed trends into the future always shows a picture of emerging problems, and optimizing these trends always boils down to identifying ways to solve them as efficiently as possible. In fact, it is more often said about the exploratory or search-normative approach, which is the essence of technological forecasting, which in fact is not the case.
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the same. And although over the past 40 years the concept of technological forecasting has been developed in detail in hundreds of monographs, in thousands of articles and reports, although it has been repeatedly proved that it is useless to try to predict what can be changed by a decision (including taking into account the prediction), because the "Oedipus Effect" - self-realization or, on the contrary, self-destruction of the forecast shows on its basis that the technological forecast, as an early "weighing" of the consequences of the planned decision, provides for improving management efficiency unspeakably more than the most successful guesses - nevertheless, the psychology of a person is such that curiosity always outweighs the benefits, so when any explanations are given, he again and again asks the question: and what will happen tomorrow? And gets another prediction. Whether it was successful or not is another matter.
The situation is aggravated by the socio-psychological incompatibility of technological forecasting with the traditionally existing decision-making system around the world. At best, the decision maker develops the device, and the decision maker (decision maker) only voices it with more or less aplomb. In the worst case - nine times out of ten, to be exact-the decision is made voluntarily by another tyrant, who then wonders what consequences it has led to. In both cases, when a futurist intervenes in the decision-making process with his warnings about undesirable consequences, an eternal conflict inevitably arises, described by A. S. Pushkin in"Songs about the Prophetic Oleg".
To date, this rule has practically no exceptions, which leads to the problem of constructing a language that is equally understandable for the futurologist, for the manager, and for the "population". In our opinion, this requires first of all a generally understandable logic of actions. And not so much in the sense of the sequence of operations, but rather in the clarity of what specific result, what tangible benefits they give.
This kind of algorithm is summarized in the "Methodology for Long-term Proactive Data Analysis" described below. The method is accompanied by an illustrative example (case study) of one of the experiments of its application to the activities of a typical company dealing with computer equipment. The reader can see that the experience is quite successful.
Methodology
Step one: Problem statement. In every element of human life - from the personal daily routine to the situation in the family, in the company, in the country-the leading role is played by the problem: the gap between what is due and what is. From a certain point of view, any organism-from a virus to a person and human society - is just an apparatus for continuously solving problems that constantly arise. No problems - no body, no life. It is the problem - free line that distinguishes the organic and inorganic worlds. In this sense, we can say that life is not so much a form of the existence of matter as a way and process of solving problems, completed only by death.
Therefore, the first thing that should come to mind when referring from the past to the present and future is what problems create the necessary impetus for the further existence of the object of research. For example, how to get to five places in a day, when each requires at least half a day. Or what to do with the trend of increasing decrease in sales. Or whether to come out with an open protest against the hated ruling clique, or limit yourself to another dirty joke about it. Sometimes just one of the most pressing problems is enough to make the perspective quite clear. But in most cases, it is better to build a "tree of problems": which of them is the key, on the solution of which all the others depend, which is a sub - key - dependent on the first, but determining the others, and which are derivatives that are completely determined by the previous ones.
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It is very desirable to indicate problems - to present them in the form of an ordered set of indicatums - the names of specific indicators and indicators-a digital, generally specific expression of the latter.
Step two: Identify promising issues. Current, obvious problems are not everything. No less important, if not more important, are prospective (future) problems, which are divided into two classes: those that are brewing, which are already beginning to make themselves felt, and those that are expected, which have not yet arisen, but may begin to mature under certain conditions. And if the state of current problems can easily be recorded by the decision-maker or his staff (preferably in consultation with a professional forecasting analyst), then to identify promising problems, experience shows that at least a survey of a group of experts is necessary, which makes it possible to objectify subjective expert assessments, and even better-supplemented with an analysis of trend scenario models. and other predictive models.
As a result of the second step ,the" problem tree " is built on three levels: current, emerging, and expected.
For example, an additional proactive problem analysis shows that the value of four of the five places you need to get to during the day, when extrapolating the observed trends to the future, is clearly reduced compared to the growing value of the fifth place, and suddenly the prospect of having to visit some sixth place opens up, after which it becomes unnecessary to visit the first five. Or the trend of decreasing sales volume is differentiated; for some items, the decrease may continue, and for some-not, and suddenly there is a danger under certain conditions of stopping sales altogether. Or it turns out that in traditional forms of protest against the ruling clique, Protestants are, as often happens, just pathetic toys in the hands of another clique, which correlates with the ruling one according to the well-known principle: radish horseradish is no sweeter. And under certain conditions, a prolonged crisis situation may begin to develop not into a normally problematic one, but into a catastrophic one.
In short, the analysis of prospective problems is able to present the observed problem situation in a significantly different light, requiring qualitatively different solutions.
Step three: Goal setting. We will not dwell on the logically fundamental "lower" level of goal setting: solving the set and identified current, emerging and expected problems. This goes without saying. Let's turn to more "high" levels of goal setting, which can make some adjustments to the supposedly "self-evident". Let's ask ourselves: in the name of what are the observed or emerging problems being solved? And then, perhaps, the final goal will be determined, for the sake of which the "lower" and intermediate ones are solved. And, just as likely, the lower levels of goals will need to be reformulated, giving the problem-solving process a different content or direction. What is required from goal setting.
The main thing in goal setting, as you know, is the optimum criterion. Figuratively speaking, what the optimum will look like - this is the goal.
For example, optimum - be sure to make it to all five places at any cost. Accordingly, the final goal is formed, which determines the rest. And the problem is presented in a completely new light: how to avoid our usual Asian ritual fornication at any business meeting and thus reduce the necessary half a day to half an hour. Or, on the contrary, if you present a specific expected result in a way that does not require exactly five sessions at all, you can be content with one or two. Similarly, "sales volume" is not an end in itself, but a means, or at least an intermediate goal, to achieve the ultimate goal of increasing the firm's profitability. But in all cases, does an increase in profitability equate to an increase in sales? It may be possible to achieve the same end goal by expanding advisory activities or by servicing an expanding network.-
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my regular clientele? Again, the problem is radically modified. Finally, getting rid of the bankrupt ruling clique is also not an end in itself. In this respect, the ultimate goal may appear as the return of the country to the host of so-called civilized countries (without false idealization of them, but with an understanding of the border between civilization and barbarism, not to mention the savagery of the diverse "Asiatics"that appear to the eyes). With this approach, the problem can be reformulated into the need to create parties - ruling and opposition, instead of the existing appearance of them for the sake of the selfish interests of well - known individuals and circles, the need for a real, rather than fictitious, separation of powers-legislative, executive and judicial, the need to move from a personal-authoritarian regime to a democratic-legal one.
It should be noted that sometimes the nature of the object of research is such that you can completely limit yourself to the lower level of goal setting: simply-how to solve the observed and identified problems? Then you can go from the first or second step directly to the fourth, bypassing the "goal tree", as a matter of course. Moreover, the latter is inevitably associated with at least one more survey of experts.
Step four: "decision tree" and "weighting" their consequences. At this stage, the main thing is not so much outlining possible solutions for subsequent adoption of the most effective ones (or those that seem to be at first), according to the established problems and goals, but rather "weighing" the possible consequences in advance, even before the final decision is made. At the same time, for obvious reasons, with a special emphasis on the consequences that are not so much pleasing (which is always pleasant) as upsetting (because it is useful). This requires another expert survey.
For example, you might decide to take a taxi and use it to get to all five places in ten hours. An upsetting consequence may be the final amount on the counter. If it is too heavy, then it is better to refuse such a decision in advance, and not when explaining with the driver. If you decide to reduce the ritual time of each meeting, then think of a lover who was slapped in the face by his beloved when he found out that a taxi with a meter turned on was waiting for him at the entrance. And if you decide to limit yourself to the sixth place, as if "overlapping" the first five, then think about how you will be met there next time. It is possible that with this approach, the proposed solution will undergo significant changes.
Or a decision is planned to bypass competitors by dumping - increasing sales at cheaper prices than they have, in order to catch up when you remain a monopolist. And won't the company go down the drain with such an adventure? Or will it encounter a counter-dumping of an equal or stronger competitor? Maybe look for a different solution?
Finally, a decision is planned under the circumstances, for example, to spit on your native country, which is both a foreign and hostile state, and try your luck on a foreign land. Well, we have accumulated so much experience in this regard that the future in each typical case is more than clear. If you have a chance to succeed and at the same time accept the position of a "second - class person", which inevitably becomes every Russian in any country to the west, east or south of Russia-pack your bags. If the chances are slim and even success will inevitably turn into a kind of prison with a terrible nostalgia for the native barracks-it's better not to try.
* * *
As you can see, in all cases, no predictions are made about the future day, the fate of the company or the state. However, specific data are proactively analyzed over an arbitrarily long range of the foreseeable future (in practice, in the range of a maximum of one to two decades, and then it begins).
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unimaginable, which deserves a separate discussion related to the prospects of complex computerization of public production and the availability of weapons of mass destruction - nuclear, chemical and bacteriological). At the same time, in such a way that they can significantly increase the objectivity and, consequently, the effectiveness of the planned solutions.
Isn't that enough to give technological forecasting a place at least on par with such tempting and so consistently futile attempts to predict the future?
Below is a real illustration of the successful application of the proposed method.
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