According to the general opinion of government regulators and economists, the world economy has passed the lower point of the downturn and is on the way to transition into a recovery phase with a more or less steady expansion of production, although the negative consequences of the financial and economic crisis are still far from being overcome. In the Singapore Statement of the Heads of State and Government of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) of November 15, 2009 "A new growth paradigm for a Unified Asia-Pacific Region in the Twenty-first Century "noted:" The global economy has begun a recovery process, with the Asia-Pacific region playing a leading role. " 1
If we consider the current crisis to be structural*, then the most likely scenario is the so-called L-shaped, i.e., a slow and sluggish exit from the global crisis, as opposed to a rapid V-shaped recovery or an equally rapid W-shaped double fall-the rise of the world economy. The Singapore Declaration emphasized that while " ... the vigorous response we have taken has created the basis for economic recovery... the recovery of the economy is not yet based on a solid foundation. " 2
The latest (October 2009) forecasts continue to support the L-shaped scenario, especially in the most developed economies (namely, China and a number of other transition and developing countries are focused on exports to these countries). Thus, according to experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2010 the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected in the United States at the rate of 1.5%, in Japan -1.7%, in the euro area - 0.3%, in the UK - 0.9% 3.
Nevertheless, this scenario also allows us to sum up the preliminary results of the struggle with the crisis of the largest Asian economies-China and India. These results show that both countries, thanks to the high stability of their economies and effective and timely anti-crisis measures, are generally successfully overcoming the negative impact of the global downturn, while also contributing, especially to the PRC, to counteract it on a global scale. According to the Beijing Office of the World Bank (WB), China's GDP growth in the third quarter of 2009 reached 8.9% year-on-year4, while industrial production increased, according to the General Statistical Office (GSO) In the first 10 months of 2009, India's GDP grew by 9.4% year - on-year, including 16.1% in October 2009.5 India's performance is also quite good: according to Prime Minister M. Singh, India's GDP was expected to grow by 6 - 6.5% in 2009.6
The article by L. V. Novoselova, Doctor of Economics, analyzes the anti-crisis measures taken by the Chinese state and their preliminary results, which are mostly positive. At the same time, the author notes that hotbeds of instability remain and it is still too early to talk about a real exit of China to the trajectory of sustainable economic growth.
China began a forced reversal from the export - oriented model of catch-up development, tested in the late 50s-60s of the XX century by its post - war pioneer, Japan, and acquired a solid baggage of cheapened foreign assets.
However, it seems that the country has not yet managed to lay the foundation for a noticeable progress in the post-crisis period towards an innovative knowledge-based economy. This is what distinguishes the Chinese economy from the American one, which many experts "bury" together, although labor productivity is booming in the United States (in the industrial sector-13.6% in the third quarter of 2009.7).
Anachronism such as the fixed exchange rate of the yuan (unlike, for example, India) remains evidence of the lack of maturity of the Chinese economy. Undervalued, according to the vast majority of economists outside of China, the yuan exchange rate, despite China's membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), creates loopholes for actual dumping in exports and import restrictions. This issue is constantly being raised, though without much success, by the United States and the European Union (more precisely, the euro zone). But, as happened with the falling US dollar, sooner or later it will face the entire global economy, in which China has taken the lead.
* For more information, see: Rusakov E. M. Is this just the beginning? // Asia and Africa Today, 2009, No. 1.
1 Official website of the President of the Russian Federation - www.kremlin.ru/refnotes/374
2 Ibid. - http://www.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/373
3 World Economic Outlook. October 2009. Sustaining the Recovery. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, p. 69 - www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/pdf/text/pdf
4 World Bank Office, Beijing. China Quarterly Update. November 2009, p. 1 - www.worldbank.org/china
7 US Bureau of Labor Statistics - www.bls.gov/lpc/
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