On November 1-3, 2010, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted a scientific conference "Cultural and historical traditions, social and political transformation, conflicts and interaction in the region of the Middle East (Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, ethnic Kurdistan)". The conference was organized by the Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the invitation of scientists from abroad, scientific and educational institutions in Moscow and other Russian cities.
The conference was opened by the Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies V. V. Naumkin. In his opening remarks, he stressed the importance of the conference, which is held regularly every two years. Unlike previous conferences, he noted, the program of this forum is more diverse in subject matter, including discussion of cultural and historical traditions in the Muslim East, as well as various aspects (economy, demography, gender issues, etc.) of the current stage of its transformation. As V. V. Naumkin emphasized, issues related to the state of an extremely important region in geopolitical terms, which actively interacts with neighboring areas, were put up for discussion. A special aspect of this interaction is the migration of immigrants from this region to Western Europe, where the process of their cultural and social adaptation is very difficult, slow and painful.
At the first session of the conference devoted to the current stage of socio-economic evolution, six presentations were made.
The report of the head of the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East V. Ya. Belokrenitsky "Divergent trajectories of development of the states of the region, internal faults, geopolitical consequences" was devoted to the problem of development of the states that make up the region. The speaker noted that while in the first years after the end of World War II all the countries of the region were at a more or less similar level of economic development, now they are significantly different in terms of per capita income. Turkey and Iran are among the middle-income countries. Pakistan remained in the low-income group, while Afghanistan belongs to the poorest countries in the world. V. Ya. Belokrenitsky suggested that the continuation of these trends will create conditions for expanding the participation of more developed countries in the region in the affairs of less prosperous ones. At the same time, the core of the region is the distribution area of traditional mountain and arid economy and culture, whose population (Kurds, Pashtuns, Balochs, etc.) has largely preserved the structures and customs of tribal organization. Uneven development leads to the strengthening of internal fractures in the region, which are fraught with conflicts and serious geopolitical shifts.
In his report "Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: prospects for demographic transition and natural resources for life support and economic development", A.V. Akimov (IB RAS) made a forecast of the population of these countries, made using the method of changing demographic development regimes 1, which makes it possible to assess the prospects for population growth and the volume of key resources needed for economic development. to achieve a level of socio-economic development that ensures demographic transition, i.e. stabilization
1 The methodology is described in Akimov A.V. 2300: Global Problems and Russia, Moscow, 2008.
page 150
population size. The author's calculations (for 100 years) show the complexity of the tasks facing the region. The population of Pakistan and Afghanistan will more than double before stabilization, and Turkey and Iran will grow by about 1.5 times. Consumption of fuel and energy resources in order to meet the standards of developed countries should increase in Iran by about 2 times, in Turkey-by 4 times, in Pakistan-by about 20 times, in Afghanistan-by more than 550 times. In terms of agricultural resources, the region cannot be self-sufficient even with large investments: except for Turkey, all countries have very limited land resources. Fresh water is scarce throughout the region. According to A.V. Akimov, the region will generate mass emigration, which can also be directed to the north, i.e. to Central Asia and Russia. It seems, the speaker noted, that the development paths of the Middle East countries are becoming a very important problem for our country. Research is needed to develop programs to help the development of this region.
N. M. Mammadova's report "Comparative analysis of the effectiveness of economic models of Iran and Turkey" is an interesting attempt to compare the course of economic development of the two countries, identifying similarities, the most significant differences, and the level of development achieved at its various stages. Thus, the report notes that until the late 1970s and early 1980s, both countries used similar economic models not only in terms of their main characteristics, but also in terms of their chronological framework. If in the 1930s Turkey was slightly ahead of Iran in terms of development rates and national productivity, then in the 1970s it was already. Iran, using such a factor as oil revenues to accelerate its development, has significantly advanced. However, since the early 1980s, the economic models of the two countries have been radically different. Iran began to actively use the "Islamic" model in its statist and at the same time closed version, i.e. with an emphasis on state intervention and internal resources, while Turkey tried to move along the path of creating an open market economy. As a result, after 10 years, the ratio of economic indicators has changed significantly in favor of Turkey. However, when Iran started using the market model in the 1990s, this factor again led to a reduction in the level of development between the two countries; moreover, in some years Iran managed to take the lead. However, since 2006, the trend of reducing the effectiveness of the Iranian model has been clearly marked. According to N. M. Mammadova, this cannot be clearly considered a manifestation of the shortcomings of the model, since the development of the Iranian economy is increasingly affected by economic sanctions imposed by the United States and other states.
In the report of S. N. Kamenev (IB RAS) " Prospects of economic development of Pakistan after the national disaster (flood)" The article analyzes the current state of the country's economy and the impact of the consequences of an environmental disaster on the development of the national economy in the coming years. The speaker suggested that economic growth in the current fiscal year (2010/2011) is unlikely to exceed 1-2%. Moreover, in agriculture, we should expect a general decline in production, primarily in agriculture and animal husbandry, and partly in horticulture and vegetable production. In the industrial sector (planned growth of 5.6% for 2010/11), with the overall decline in production, we can expect only a small increase due to construction capacity, recovery of production in small-scale industry, as well as due to the functioning of fuel and energy companies, large and medium-sized metallurgical plants, enterprises for the production of building materials, industrial infrastructure, automotive, to a lesser extent industrial and textile industry. Activity in the service sector will noticeably decrease. The main hope for Pakistan in these circumstances is external assistance. The IMF has already provided about $ 600 million and will allocate another $ 1 million to the country's economic recovery by the end of the year.$ 3 billion. The World Bank has allocated $ 1 billion for this purpose, and the Asian Development Bank will provide $ 2 billion for targeted energy projects in the next three years. According to experts from the IMF, the IB and the ADB, the funds already allocated (including bilateral aid) and promised aid will allow Pakistan to overcome the catastrophic consequences of flooding, but this process may take about 10 years. At the same time, as S. N. Kamenev noted, the effectiveness of aid is reduced due to the corruption of Pakistani officials.
N. Y. Ulchenko (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Islamic traditionalism in the economic policy of the Government of the Justice and Development Party", highlighting as distinctive features of the Islamic model of economic development special attention to solving social problems and, if possible, limited use of external sources of financing, provided-
page 151
She analyzed the relevance of these aspects in the economic policy of the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party, which has been ruling in Turkey since 2002. At the same time, it was emphasized that given the secular nature of the Republic of Turkey and the rather long period of strict state restrictions on the influence of Islam on social development, for Turkey it is possible to raise the question only of the possibility of modifying the general model, some changes in priorities, but not of full-scale implementation of the economic and legal provisions of Sharia, official use of the tax system prescribed by it, etc. Based on the fact that social policy was strengthened during the AKP's rule, which, however, is combined with the deepening of differentiation in the process of GDP redistribution and the concentration of social assistance on social groups associated with the party, as well as the government's refusal to continue using the IMF loan assistance, the author comes to the conclusion that the AKP's economic policy is economic attitudes in the Islamic manner.
U. V. Okimbekov's report "Afghanistan and economic cooperation of the countries of the region" noted that after the overthrow of the Taliban regime and the beginning of the process of economic recovery in Afghanistan, trade and economic relations with the countries of the region expanded. The total volume of the country's foreign trade turnover more than tripled from 2002 to 2008 (from $ 1.1 billion to $ 3.6 billion). Five neighboring countries - Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan-account for about 50% of Afghanistan's trade. The leading position is traditionally occupied by Pakistan. It is the main corridor for entering foreign markets and goods entering the Afghan market. The weak and sometimes complete absence of appropriate transport links does not allow other neighboring countries to increase their trade turnover. However, despite the existing difficulties, some of them have significantly increased trade with Afghanistan in recent years and surpassed Pakistan in terms of growth rates. Thus, Uzbekistan has increased the volume of trade turnover with Afghanistan several times. Regional countries offer various projects for the construction of trans-Afghan transport systems, but in fact only Uzbekistan in January of this year started implementing the project of the Termez-Khairatan railway line with a length of 75 km. For the implementation of transport projects, regional states need financial assistance and investment from outside. The prospects for economic programs depend on the further development of the international situation and the political situation in Afghanistan.
Six reports were presented at the session "Socio-demographic processes".
I. V. Zhmuida's report "External migration-the role in the economic development of Pakistan" noted that in the 2009/10 financial year, the country ranked first in the world in terms of money transfers from foreign Pakistanis. The main revenues, totaling $ 9 billion, came from the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Saudi Arabia and other countries. In July-September 2010, such revenues increased by 13%. The authorities are trying to reduce the amount of funds from abroad flowing to Pakistan through illegal channels, but so far the measures taken for this purpose have not led to obvious success. In order to attract transfers and use them effectively, foreign Pakistanis are provided with numerous benefits, including tax discounts, land plots for construction, etc. Moreover, they are provided with reserved seats in the National Assembly. The departure of different categories of Pakistanis abroad affects the socio-political and socio-economic situation in the country in different ways, but causes an increase in inflationary trends, although it contributes to the overall development of the economy (including the growth of private consumption), as well as the social sphere.
A. I. Polishchuk's speech "Demographic situation in Iran" emphasized that from 1998 to 2006 the population growth rate slowed down, but at the end of 2010 the country's population reached 73 million people; in the coming years, it is expected to increase to 76-77 million. The country is dominated by the male population, whose employment significantly exceeds that of women. The unemployment rate does not decrease and fluctuates at the level of 15% of the economically active population. Solving the problem of employment requires a serious restructuring of the entire structure of the national economy of Iran. The urban population is growing rapidly, accounting for 68.5%. The highest population density was recorded in Tehran province (19%). Young people aged 20-35 make up 43% of the country's population, or 30 million people. Muslims dominate the Iranian society-85%.
page 152
The report of G. I. Starchenkov (IB RAS) "Muslim guest workers in the USA and the European Union" notes that after the Second World War, several million Muslim workers came to the USA and Western European countries who retained their faith in the Islamic way of life. The events of September 11, 2001 led to an even greater isolation of Muslim guest workers, while at the same time aggravating inter-confessional relations. The countries of Western Europe set goals to increase the size of the available labor force and restore the reproductive demographic process, but the integration of Muslim workers into the European community did not take place. EU governments have taken measures to restrict the entry of guest workers from Muslim countries, prevent the construction of mosques, prohibit the wearing of the hijab in public places, so that inter-civilizational contradictions have grown in these areas. The US and EU governments continue to look for a way out of this situation.
E. A. Musina (MGIMO University) Russian Foreign Ministry) focused on the special significance of migration processes in Iran. The main difficulties faced by the country's leadership are brain drain and labor outflow, the refugee problem, internal migration and urbanization processes. The first two phenomena pose a serious threat to the Iranian economy. Among the reasons that encourage Iranians to leave the country are the search for better living conditions, the possibility of obtaining a good education and a better job, and, as a result, a higher salary. The problems associated with massive flows of refugees to Iran from Afghanistan and Iraq also have a serious impact on the socio-economic situation in the country - the population of Iran is increasing, its ethnic and religious composition is changing, there is a problem of adapting immigrants, the number of unskilled labor is increasing. Increasing internal migration leads to an increase in the urban population (currently the level of urbanization is 68%), an increase in the number of cities, an increase in the average age of marriage, and a decrease in fertility.
Yu. V. Khromova (ISAA MSU) in her report "Features of urban women's employment in Turkey" analyzed the issue of participation of Turkish women in the country's economy. Since traditional Islam does not involve women working outside the home, therefore, if the level of economic activity of women is high, it can be assumed that there are no prerequisites for Islamization in society. The report presents quantitative and qualitative characteristics of working urban women in Turkey in 1988-2008. The employment rate of women in the city is very low, although there is a tendency for its gradual growth.
N. R. Masumova (MGIMO (U) of the Russian Foreign Ministry) focused on current trends in migration of the Turkish labor force. The export of labor began after World War II mainly to Western Europe, and from the mid-70s of the XX century - to the countries of the Persian Gulf. The report analyzes the dynamics of money transfers of Turkish migrants, the impact of internal and external factors on migration processes in Turkey, as well as the geographical structure of Turkish labor migration. It is noted that European countries, receiving economic benefits from the stay of foreign citizens on their territory, ignore the problems that arise due to social, cultural, and religious differences. With the help of migrant workers, Western countries currently hope to solve the worsening demographic situation to some extent. As you know, the population of Europe is rapidly aging, the birth rate is declining, the rate of population growth is slowing down, while life expectancy is increasing, which increases the burden on the economically active population, which leads to a shortage of labor. And Turkey, where almost 67% of the population is aged between 15 and 65, is able to replenish the labor resources of European countries to some extent.
At the third session of the conference devoted to the Afghan-Pakistani conflict node, eight reports and presentations were heard.
V. N. Plastun (Novosibirsk) in his report "The War in Afghanistan: a geopolitical aspect" noted that the proximity of Afghanistan and the entire conflict area makes the situation in Central Asia particularly important for Russia. Despite the relatively calm elections in Kyrgyzstan, the situation in Central Asia continues to be tense. But while there remains some concern about possible armed expansion of the Taliban in the region, according to the speaker, it is unlikely. Sabotage can only be expected from extremists of Central Asian origin - the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and other groups.
Referring to the US Afghan policy, M. R. Arunova (IB RAS) stressed that President Barack Obama continues to make adjustments to the Afghan policy, trying to prepare it faster.
page 153
the Afghan army. However, the problem of its training is solved with difficulty. Increasing military pressure on the Taliban also proved ineffective. Now it is not a question of defeating, but of weakening the Taliban. US military operations in southern Afghanistan have only resulted in pushing the Taliban out to the north of the country. The West recognizes that the Afghan army is not ready for independent operations. According to Arunova, Pakistan's position is ambiguous. As an ally of the United States, Islamabad is playing its own game, often contrary to the interests of the international coalition. It manifests itself in indirect support for the Afghan Taliban. Although Washington's current strategy includes actions aimed not only at creating a combat-ready Afghan army, but also measures to develop the economy and stabilize society, nevertheless, there is no question of abandoning the idea of introducing models of Western democracy in Afghanistan.
Omar Nessar (Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan) in his speech "Coalition forces in Afghanistan and the problems of the transit corridor" considered the problems of the presence of foreign, primarily American, troops on Afghan soil and the transit corridors necessary for their supply. He noted that the southern and northern corridors are currently operating. The formation of the latter was preceded by increased US pressure on the Taliban since 2008, which, for its part, tried to cut off the supply of troops from the south, through Pakistan. In April 2008 The North Atlantic bloc has agreed in principle with Russia to open the northern corridor. In July of the same year, the United States and Russia agreed on the transit of military cargo through Russian territory and Central Asia. However, it was not until August 2009 that the first batch of military cargo passed through the northern route. And only in 2010 it was fully operational. The reason for the delay in NATO is considered to be bureaucratic obstacles in Russia and other transit countries. There were also logistical problems, which eventually managed to be overcome.
V. G. Korgun (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Dialogue: Search for an alternative solution to the Afghan problem" noted that the military way to resolve it leads to a dead end. The Afghan Government has long made efforts to find a peaceful, negotiated solution. In recent years, many forums - jirgas - have been held with the participation of broad circles of the Afghan and Pakistani (Pashtun) public. In 2008, unofficial contacts between representatives of Kabul and the armed opposition began. In April 2010, according to unconfirmed reports, representatives of Kabul and the opposition Islamic Party of Hekmatyar met in the Maldives. In June 2010, a Peace Jirga was held in Kabul, declaring full support for the idea of dialogue with the Taliban and other armed opposition groups. At the same time, Taliban officials reject the idea of negotiations, demanding the immediate withdrawal of foreign troops. In September 2010, Afghan President Hamid Karzai announced the establishment of the Supreme Peace Council, a permanent body for dialogue with the opposition. However, V. G. Korgun noted that there are still many questions about who to conduct a dialogue with, at what level, and what role Kabul's Western partners and Pakistan will play. The most important new moment was the support of the process from the United States, which previously expressed skepticism. Russia already supports dialogue, but expresses concern that the Taliban will come to power in Central Asia as a result of negotiations. Iran is ready to join the process, but Pakistan is playing a destructive role, supporting the intransigent Taliban and trying to dominate the negotiation process.
R. R. Sikoev (IB RAS) devoted his speech "Authoritarianism and democracy in the conditions of Afghanistan" to the problem of authoritarianism and especially democracy in the conditions of Afghanistan. He noted that, in fact, all the regimes in the country tended to an authoritarian way of government. This is due, among other reasons, to the idea of the sacral nature of power that is widespread in the East. Speaking about the current stage of the country's development, the speaker noted that there is a split in society on the issue of the constitutional structure - there are supporters of unitarianism and federalism. Returning to the choice between authoritarianism and democracy, R. R. Sikoev stressed that according to the Islamic faith, the supreme power belongs to Allah, and Sharia is the divine law. Even such institutions of traditional democracy as the shura and jirga only veil authoritarian power, playing a consultative and advisory role under the ruler. The reason for the lack of democracy in today's Afghanistan is, according to the speaker, the strength of Islamic traditions, especially in a tribal, patriarchal society.
In the report of Yu. N. Tikhonov (Lipetsk) "Fakir from Ipi-the forerunner of modern terrorism", the topic of continuity and differences between what is happening in the zone of Pashtun tribes in our time and what took place during the period of anti-colonial struggle was touched upon. Speaker
page 154
considered whether the anti-British movement led by a fakir from Ipi, a popular mountain Pashtun leader in the 1930s and 1940s, can be considered a forerunner of modern terrorism. Answering this question positively, Yu. N. Tikhonov drew attention to the fact that modern terrorism differs from the terrorism of the first half of the XX century by its mass character and the scale of people involved in it. The faqir of Ipi was, from today's point of view, not a terrorist, but a local, local leader who led the tribes of North Waziristan in their struggle against the British colonial authorities. At the same time, he organized assassinations of senior officials of the British Indian administration. The rigidity of his methods of fighting brought him closer to the terrorists.
Speaking about the role of the Quetta Shura in modern Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, N. A. Zamaraeva (IB RAS) noted that the council (shura) in the administrative center of the Pakistani province of Balochistan emerged after the flight of the Taliban from Afghanistan to Pakistan, following their defeat in 2001. Although the Taliban regime has changed over time (in 1996-2001, it officially recognized the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and in the fall of 2001, it actively contributed to its defeat), N. A. Zamaraeva noted that the military authorities of Pakistan nevertheless turned a blind eye to the creation of their own bases by the Afghan Taliban on Pakistani territory. The presence of Afghan Taliban bases in Pakistan largely explained the frosty relations between Islamabad and Kabul. The situation changed somewhat after the resignation of the President of Pakistan, General P. Musharraf. The new President, A. A. Zardari, managed to establish working relations with H. Karzai. But the Quetta Shura factor continues to complicate them, even though Mullah Omar, according to many observers, remains only the spiritual and not the military leader of the Taliban and the armed opposition.
A.V. Vorobyov (Cheboksary-Kazan), covering the topic "US policy in Pakistan at the present stage", noted that American policy is characterized by a certain duality. On the one hand, since 2003, Pakistan has been recognized as the main strategic partner of the United States outside of NATO in the fight against terrorism, and Washington has provided it with military and logistical assistance worth more than $ 10 billion, and on the other hand, Islamabad's actions do not always find understanding and approval in the American capital. However, at the last of the three strategic partnership dialogues held between the two countries in October 2010, the Americans promised to provide $ 2 billion in assistance to the Pakistani armed forces in 2012-2016. At the same time, the United States has already begun providing $ 7.5 billion in five-year economic support to Pakistan.
Elena Kovalenko (MGIMO), in her report "The problem of drugs in Afghanistan and Pakistan", noted that the peak of opium poppy production in Afghanistan was reached in 2007-2008, and the created reserves (about 10 thousand tons of opium) support the drug trade at a high level, despite the decrease in the volume of poppy harvesting in 2009 and especially in 2010 The main reason for a significant drop in the poppy crop in the latter case is plant disease. It almost halved the yield, while the area of crops almost did not decrease. Meanwhile, due to crop failures, the price of opium and opiates, among which the main place is occupied by heroin, has increased. E. I. Kovalenko noted that the fight against drug trafficking is ineffective - drug interception in Central Asia and Russia accounts for 4-5% of the total volume of contraband. The Taliban tightly control the drug business, collect a significant part of the proceeds from it, and thus buy weapons and produce explosive devices.
The fourth session (eight presentations) was devoted to cultural and religious traditions and innovations."
Hanna Omarkhali (Germany) analyzed the historical background of the formation of the Canon in modern Yezidi society. She noted that the pre-Islamic Kurdish religion, Yezidism, remained at the stage when religious texts were not canonized. At the same time, the basic Yezidi religious knowledge lies not in written religious texts and manuscripts, but in an oral tradition passed down from generation to generation. The most important place among the religious texts preserved in oral form is occupied by religious hymns. They are believed to have been revealed by God and are called Kauls. One of the main issues of modern Yezidism is the canonization of religious texts, which, according to the speaker, is especially important given the scriptualization process that has already begun in Yezidism.
A. A. Suvorova's report "Women's leadership in grassroots Islam: the Zikri sect in Pakistan" analyzed the history of the sect, its geographical location, features of religious traditions, and the ethnic component. The Rapporteur noted that harassment
page 155
dhikri took place both in the Middle Ages and in our time. The foundations of its activities are voluntary renunciation of worldly goods and equality, including social and gender equality. All rituals are closed to non-members of the sect, and, what is very important and interesting, a woman is at the center of the ritual action. In general, according to the speaker, the activities of the Zikri sect in Pakistan show similarities with the postulates of Sufism.
S. F. Oreshkova (Institute of Islamic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in her speech "Islam and Europeanization: the Turkish experience of synthesizing two paths of civilizational development" noted that Turkey is more advanced on the path of Europeanization than other Muslim countries, but at present the government of Islamists is in power. According to the author of the report, attention to the Islamic traditions and peculiarities of the development of Turkish society is natural and necessary. The Ottoman experience has shown that Islam, like other religions, can be a driving force for spiritual and social development, but only if it acts as one of the elements of what we call civil society, and does not overwhelm all other social components. The religious mosaic of Turkey inherited from the Ottoman Empire - the functioning of many religious sects on its territory-complicates the religious situation in the country, creating additional problems.
The report of M. M. Repenkova (MSU ISAA) "Religious discourse in postmodern literature" considered the postmodern attitude to religious discourse of Turkish writers of the late XX century, the perception of religion as a monocentric / monoidean system that turns a person into an empty sign/simulacrum in the perspective of moral problems, which is implemented in the specific poetics of a postmodern work. The attitude towards religion (Islam) in the literature of republican Turkey has always been characterized by a painful acuteness, which determines the degree of devotion of a particular artist of the word to the secular character of this state. The report is based on the analysis of the novel "Stories of Afrasiab" (1998) by Ihsan Oktay Anar, a representative of the postmodern trend in modern Turkish literature.
E. V. Dunaeva (Institute of Islamic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in her report "Islam and the gender problem in Iran" noted that over the 30 years of the IRI's existence, significant socio-political and economic transformations have been carried out, which have led to a change in the social status of women in society. Under the Islamic regime, there is an increase in the level of education, an increase in women's social and political activity, an increase in their participation in economic life, and an increase in their influence in family relations. However, the dominance of traditional gender stereotypes, which are based on male chauvinism (mardansalari), prevents the establishment of equality in society. This approach to the role of women in society is based on the norms of Islam and is enshrined in the Civil Code of the country. The needs of modern life and the processes of modernization of Iranian society require a rethinking of the place of women in Islamic society and the interpretation of certain norms of Islamic law. At the same time, there is a growing awareness among women's activists, lawyers, philosophers, and progressive religious figures that the modernization of Iranian society will also lead to a change in gender stereotypes in it.
The reflection of the spiritual and moral foundations of the Iranian society in the modern Persian language was analyzed in the report of M. S. Kameneva (IB RAS) "Moral and moral foundations of the Iranian society and their reflection in the modern Persian language". Respect for the monarch and the clergy, respect for the elderly, respect for the level of education, and the peculiarities of relationships at the family level are among those values of a spiritual and moral nature that are passed down from generation to generation and undergo only very minor changes. They are also closely related to the rather well-defined social hierarchy of Iranian society and are reflected in the modern Persian language in the form of so-called politeness formulas, which are a set of linguistic means that serve to convey the subjective attitude of the speaker/writer to the addressee, as well as objectively existing social relations in society. Politeness formulas are part of the norms of social and moral behavior of Iranians and are an expression of traditional social relations.
I. F. Safargaliyev's report (Institute of Diaspora and Integration) "Sufi Ghulam Habib and his legacy in Pakistan and other countries "drew attention to the fact that Islamic mysticism (Sufism, tasawwuf) began to" return " to the post-Soviet space. One of the most widespread Sufi orders was the tariqa Naqshbandiyya, which after the collapse of the USSR gradually began to gain strength and influence, both in the Muslim states of the CIS and in the CIS countries.
page 156
and in the countries of the Middle East. In Pakistan, Sufism is widespread, with centuries-old traditions. One of the Naqshbandi tariqa schools was headed by the famous Muslim preacher of the last century, Pir Ghulam Habib. His spiritual teachings have gained popularity in Pakistan and abroad, including in the former Soviet Union.
A. L. Borkovsky (Acad. state Services of the Russian Federation) devoted his report "Innovation in Islamic Commercial Law" to the analysis of discussions in the world of Islam around such financial instruments as futures and options. The practice of futures contracts and options under a number of conditions directly contradicts the norms of Islamic law regarding the rules of trading, as well as the ethics of buyer-seller relations. According to the speaker, the main feature of modern Muslim statements in favor of recognizing and implementing commercial activities related to futures and options is the combination of appropriate rational and pragmatic arguments with argumentation based on individual principles and ethical and value provisions of Islamic law. This position is supported by Muhammad Hashim Kamali, the author of a scientific work devoted to the problems of economic growth and successful business development in the Muslim East in a market economy. Qawali's positions have both opponents and supporters in the world of Islam, reflecting a split in relation to the involvement of this world in the system of market management and the development of financial tools by it.
Six reports were presented at the session "Ethno-confessional aspects of politics".
In the report of I. N. Serenko (IB RAS) "Counteraction of Islamists to educational transformation in Pakistan", attention was drawn to the fact that in the modern world the most real threat to global security is international terrorism. Therefore, the primary role in the fight against this global evil should be assigned to the entire system of educational institutions, which includes both traditional and modern components. At present, it is Pakistan that is at the epicenter of the global fight against international terrorism, and the state has begun to respond to this threat by changing its policy in all directions. The new state policy in the field of education (since 2009) is aimed at educating the younger generation in the spirit of tolerance and nonviolence, developing their anti-terrorist immunity. This process is being fiercely opposed by Islamists who advocate the creation of a theocratic state in Pakistan and see the modern education system as the main threat to their ideology. I. N. Serenko noted that the Islamists actually managed to fail the reform of religious education in the country (2001 - 2009). Using terrorist methods, they are still trying to paralyze the functioning of the national education system. In particular, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Pakistan, 3,433 people were killed in the period from July 2007 to July 2010 as a result of ongoing terrorist attacks by Islamists using suicide bombers throughout the country. Live bombs continue to explode, targeting various State and international institutions, including educational institutions. However, the Islamists are confronted by an insufficiently mature democratic civil society, which is interested in advancing its state along the path of progress and integration into the global multicultural space. One of the foundations of such a state is undoubtedly a modern education system, built taking into account the Muslim cultural tradition and world pedagogical experience.
K. V. Vertyaev (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "The problem of defining the phenomenon of Kurdish nationalism in the scientific circles of modern Turkey" noted that in April 2009, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is in power in Turkey, initiated a broad public discussion of the problems of interethnic relations in the country, called the "democratic initiative" of the Erdogan government. Turkey's Kurdish problem forces scholars both inside and outside the country to study and analyze interethnic differences in their short-and long-term historical perspective. Despite criticism of the" democratic initiative " by the AKP's political opponents, the discussion on the Kurdish problem allowed scholars to take a fresh look at the origins and specifics of the emergence of Kurdish nationalism in Eastern Anatolia, referring it to the beginning of the XX century, and made it possible to determine the place and role of Kurdish nationalism in the formation of the modern Turkish state. A specific feature of such a discussion is the formation of scientific views among the Kurdish nationalist elites on the problem of interethnic relations in the country, which contributes to creating an atmosphere of pluralism in society when discussing topical political and interethnic issues.
page 157
A. N. Fedoseenkova's report "On the legitimacy of Islamic power in Iran (views of Islamic Ideologists of the Islamic Republic of Iran)" focused on the shifts in the consciousness of Iranian society, which were reflected in the new concepts of Islamic ideologists, in particular concerning the methods of implementing Islamic rule in modern conditions. The presidential elections in Iran, held on June 12, 2009, marked the beginning of a new stage of social and ideological development. For the first time in 30 years of the Islamic state, Iranian society has openly declared to the world that it opposes the Islamic regime and denies the legitimacy of the government. The main ideologists of the protest movement formed in the country accused the country's leadership of illegality of the actions and political decisions taken by its representatives, and also expressed the fact of disapproval and rejection of the political course being implemented in the country. Democratic freedoms of the population, respect for civil rights, liberalizing the political course of the state and reducing theocratic tendencies in state government (mainly establishing the rule of electivity of the country's leader - Rahbar and regulating his legal powers) are the main requirements of opposition ideologues. Prominent representatives of the opposition and its spiritual and ideological mentors, such as Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Mohsen Kadivar, the famous Iranian thinker Abdulkarim Soroush, personifying the new image of the Iranian progressive public, offer their religious and political project of the Islamic system, necessary for the legitimate functioning of power in Iran in modern conditions.
R. F. Gubaidulin (Military University of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation) based on illustrative material considered the multinational composition of Afghanistan, focusing on the confessional differences of the population of this country. In his speech "National minorities of Afghanistan and their role in the socio-political life of the country", he drew special attention to the fact that at present, as in the past, it is the national factor that is decisive in the formation of governing bodies, political parties, and seriously affects the results of elections.
S. M. Ravandi-Fadai (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "The role of interethnic factor in the socio-political situation of modern Iran" described the multinational composition of the Iranian population. Two views on the problems of ethnic nationalism were proposed. In the first case, we are talking about the "building of nations" and the inevitable "destruction of ethnic groups". According to the second point of view, ethnic conflicts are the result of changes in society. The report focused on the assessment of threats to the development of separatist tendencies on the part of various ethnic groups in Iran. According to the speaker, the epicenter of these threats has shifted towards Balochistan, but in the last two years, the movement in the Kurdish areas has become more active again.
N. A. Filin (RSUH), analyzing the terrorist situation in Iran after the 2009 presidential election, convincingly showed that all cases of terrorist attacks on the territory of Iran in 2009-2010 were related to the activities of nationalist organizations. The situation was aggravated by the fact that an opposition movement had developed in the country. According to N. A. Filin, the greatest intensity of terrorist activity has reached in the provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan, as well as in Kurdistan. In Sistan and Baluchistan, the Jundallah separatist group continued to operate actively and committed a series of terrorist acts. As a result of one of them, 15 senior officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed. The separatist Kurdistan Free Life Party has been active in the Kurdistan region over the past year. She is responsible for several attacks on military personnel and terrorist attacks. As for the province of Khuzestan, in comparison with previous years, in 2009-2010, the activity of terrorist activities decreased here. The actions of the official authorities to counter terrorism were tough. Many suspected perpetrators were arrested and executed. The authorities were particularly tough on Jundallah . In February 2010, its leader, Abdolmalek Rigi, a Pakistani, was arrested and subsequently executed by the Iranian security services.
In her report "On some results of the inter-party struggle in Turkey (results of the September 12, 2010 referendum on amendments to the Constitution initiated by the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party)", N. I. Chernichenkina (Institute of Political Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences) noted that the referendum was originally intended to unite the country's population in their desire for democracy. However, its results only reinforced the existing split between supporters and opponents of constitutional changes. The AKP won a victory over the opposition and neutralized its traditional political opponents in the face of the judicial and military elites. The results of the referendum demonstrated the stability of the ruling party's position and the relative weakness of the opposition.
page 158
Within the framework of the session "Political processes: general patterns and conflicts", six reports were reviewed and discussed.
The report of N. G. Kireev (Institute of Islamic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) examines some issues of modern political Islam in Turkey. He touched upon some problems of modern political Islam in Turkey, drawing attention to the persistence of an acute conflict between the AKP and the country's top military leadership. Its latest manifestation was the fact that on October 29, 2010, top military officials ignored the reception at the Presidential Palace on the occasion of the next anniversary of the proclamation of the republic. Meanwhile, the civil authorities of the country declare their intention to prepare their own constitution, because the current one, despite the amendments, is not fully democratic. It is assumed that the new constitution will ensure the construction of a democratic civil society.
V. N. Moskalenko (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Pakistan: main features and peculiarities of political development" noted that euphoria over the creation of "its own" state was replaced by disappointment. This allowed the Islamic ideological doctrine to come out on top. The egalitarian ideas of Islam played a major role in the success of this ideology. Later, under the influence of internal and external factors, Islamization, fundamentalism and extremism grew in Pakistan. The lack of natural resources has left Pakistan permanently in debt. Pakistan has also become an active participant in the process of creating a network of interstate organizations and is currently striving to become a full member of the SCO. The political weakness of the ruling elite led to the constant involvement of the army in politics. V. N. Moskalenko believes that the current general situation in Pakistan should be regarded as very difficult. The country's future depends on a number of factors, especially the situation in Afghanistan. But the collapse of Pakistan is unlikely, and changes in the nature of the ruling regime under the influence of strong military-theocratic influence are more likely.
In her speech "The Political Structure of Pakistan's Balochistan", M. Y. Morozova (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) described the current political situation in this province as an unstable balance. There are four major militant groups operating on its territory - the Balochistan Liberation Army, the United Front for the Liberation of Balochistan, the Youth Front and the Jundallah rebel group. If the issue of Pashtunistan is a kind of cornerstone in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, then in relations with Iran, the Baloch problem is such for Pakistan. Iran is interested in maintaining internal stability in Pakistan's Balochistan region in order to prevent the spread of Baloch separatism to its territory.
O. I. Zhigalina's report "The Kurdish factor in the ethnopolitical conflict in Kirkuk" was devoted to the ethnopolitical conflict over control of the territory of the province of Kirkuk and its oil resources, as well as the interest of Iraqi Turkomans supported by Turkey and local Assyrians in this issue. Having considered the rivalry between Erbil (the center of Iraqi Kurdistan) and Baghdad on this issue, the speaker emphasized the Kurds ' insistence on annexing Kirkuk to the Kurdistan region of Iraq on the basis of article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution. The report analyzed various approaches to resolving the ethnic and political conflict around Kirkuk and concluded that the conflict may escalate in the period after the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and the formation of a new regime of power.
The report of V. I. Shlykov (ISAA MSU) "Authoritarian nature of party structures in Turkey: relations between the center and the periphery" focuses on the following main theses. Authoritarianism within party structures seems to be a characteristic feature of all political parties in Turkey, which is explained both by the political culture of Turkey and the institutional structure of parties defined by the law on political parties, as well as by the hierarchical relations between the center and the periphery. One of the main goals of party leaders is to control their power within the party organization, for which they use three types of conditionally positive tools - incentives-material, solidarity and targeted. Negative incentives in the form of threats or actual punishment play a certain role in authoritarian party structures. Material incentives help to create the basis for the formation of client networks in Turkey, strengthening authoritarianism within party structures. As a result, political parties function mainly as parallel networks through which benefits and benefits are distributed. This circumstance
page 159
It adds to the problem of instability of political parties at the local and provincial levels, due to the inefficient functioning of internal party democracy.
In the report "Military elite and political power in Turkey in the 2000s: a paradigm shift?"P. V. Shlykov (ISAA MSU), based on generalizing the experience of socio-political development of the countries of the Near and Middle East in recent times, came to the conclusion that after they gained political independence and in the process of building national states there was an increase in the role of the military in the political sphere. As a result, the most significant changes in the content and structure of political power in these countries took place in most cases with the direct or very active participation of the national armed forces. In Turkey, the armed forces played a dominant role in political development throughout the 20th century. The period of relative economic and political stability, administrative reforms, the strengthening of democratic institutions, and the growth of civil society activity that began with the AKP's coming to power in 2002 puts on the agenda a revision of the current paradigm of relations between the military and Turkish society.
At the session "Interaction within the region and between the countries of the region and its neighbors", seven reports were heard and discussed.
In his report "The Montreux Convention in Russian-Turkish Relations: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow", A.V. Boldyrev examined the influence and role of the Montreux Convention in various periods of relations between Turkey and the USSR/By Russia (1936 - 1953, 1953 - 1991, 1991 - 2010). The expert concluded that at the present stage and in the foreseeable future, the Russian Federation and Turkey are not interested in revising the economic and military blocks of the 1936 Convention.
The report of H. F. Bingol (Turkey)" The impact of Russian-Turkish cooperation in the field of energy on political stability in the region " emphasized the positive role of Turkish and Russian efforts in maintaining energy security both in the Black Sea zone and in the Middle East region as a whole. According to the speaker, this is largely due to the independent foreign policy course pursued by the ruling Justice and Development Party. It is aimed at establishing partnerships with its neighbors, especially with Russia. Turkey, being, according to the expert, a reliable partner of the Russian Federation, intends to resolve controversial issues jointly and jointly overcome the difficulties and delays in the implementation of certain energy projects that arise due to rivalry in this area with some Transcaucasian countries.
Turkey's foreign policy in the region was highlighted in the report of I. I. Ivanova (IB RAS) "The Middle East in Turkish-American relations". It highlighted the cooling of relations between Ankara and Washington due to differences in approaches to regional policy between Israel and Iran. The authors analyzed the reasons for the tension that has arisen, mainly related to Ankara's recent anti-Israeli (accusing Israel of terrorism) and, on the contrary, pro-Iranian positions (refusing to support sanctions). At the same time, as the speaker noted, the Turkish administration is aware of the need to mitigate the severity of Turkish-Israeli relations, which have a significant impact on Turkish-American relations.
L. M. Kulagina (IB RAS) continued the topic of Iran's foreign policy in the Middle East. In the report "Iran and the problem of the Middle East settlement", she noted that the regional rivalry between the United States and Iran, their struggle for dominance in the Middle East, creates tension and prerequisites for the emergence of armed conflicts. This situation, according to the expert, encourages a new alignment of regional political forces, uniting to a certain extent Turkey, Iran, Syria and Lebanon on the basis of resistance to US-Israeli plans. In the political game to weaken US regional influence, Iran plays a major role, relying, in particular, on the Iraqi Shiites controlled by the interim Prime Minister of Iraq, former Prime Minister Maliki.
The role of the United States in Iran's foreign policy was discussed in the speech of Irina Fedorova (Institute of Foreign Policy of the Russian Academy of Sciences) "The American factor in Iran's relations with the countries of the region". The speaker emphasized that, despite the decision to withdraw troops from Iraq, Washington is interested in maintaining its position in the Middle East region. It will continue to exert economic pressure on Iran by imposing sanctions, and will also try to strengthen the "military shield" by strengthening military groups in the Persian Gulf and selling weapons to countries in the region, especially Saudi Arabia. The US plans will boost Tehran's response efforts.
page 160
The problem of nuclear safety was analyzed in the reports of V. I. Sazhin (IB RAS) " The Iranian nuclear program and its impact on the region "and V. I. Sotnikov (IB RAS)"Problems of nuclear safety in South Asia and the Middle East".
According to V. I. Sazhin, the desire of the Iranian leadership for hegemony is connected with the national-psychological factor and the position of Iran as the center of world Shiism. In the event of the transition of the Iranian nuclear program from the peaceful to the military sphere, Iran will pose a real military threat not only to the countries of the region, but also to Russia, which has influenced Moscow's support for the latest sanctions against Iran. Having analyzed in detail the degree of danger of possible actions of Iran, the speaker considered some options for overcoming the crisis.
V. I. Sotnikov analyzed the nuclear problem in a broader aspect. He singled out countries that agree to join the process of nuclear deterrence, as well as those that refuse to do so, guided by the goals of a selfishly understood national foreign policy strategy. Noting the growing nuclear potential of the latter group of countries, including Pakistan and Iran, the rapporteur also pointed to the success achieved in the first decade of the twenty-first century in curbing the illegal trade in nuclear secrets and expressed doubt that terrorists could be successful in using a dirty nuclear bomb in the future.
The Conference concluded with the seventh session. In general, the scientific conference organized by the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East Countries demonstrated a great interest in the problems of the development of the Muslim region of specialists in various disciplines - economists, political scientists, historians and cultural scientists. In addition to the Center's staff, specialists from other departments of the Institute, as well as postgraduates and undergraduates of a number of higher educational institutions also took an active part in the work.
page 161
New publications: |
Popular with readers: |
News from other countries: |
![]() |
Editorial Contacts |
About · News · For Advertisers |
![]() 2014-2025, LIBMONSTER.COM is a part of Libmonster, international library network (open map) Keeping the heritage of the United States of America |