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China's powerful entry into the processes of globalization began almost simultaneously with the country's transition to market reforms in the late 70s and early 80s of the last century. As the reforms deepened and expanded, and as the country's economic, political, and cultural power (or, in Chinese terms, "total national power") grew, its diverse interests began to extend further beyond the national territory and enter into complex relationships with the interests of other countries and communities.

This applies primarily to security interests. China has become one of the main forces on the planet, capable of either significantly strengthening or, on the contrary, shaking the world order in the most important areas for the existence of humanity. Therefore, it is precisely its role in solving or exacerbating current and future global security problems that is the subject of unflagging attention of politicians, analysts, and the public around the world. A significant contribution to understanding this role is made by a monographic study prepared by the author's team of scientists from IMEMO RAS with the participation of employees of some other institutes under the guidance of corresponding members. RAS G. I. Chufrina.

The authors set themselves a three-pronged task. First, it is necessary to analyze China's strategy aimed at ensuring its security in the context of increasing globalization. Second, we need to assess the perception of China's changing role in the world by its main foreign policy partners. And, third, consider the impact of these factors on Russia's national interests.

This approach gives the study a three-dimensional, multidimensional character. The most important areas of China's national security-military, foreign economic, energy, and environmental-and its strategy in these areas are analyzed not only in themselves, but also in relation to the interests and policies of the world's leading power centers and China's neighbors. And then all this is refracted through the Russian prism. The authors do not offer simple and unambiguous solutions to the complex problems that are considered in this paper. Rather, they help to identify these problems more precisely, identify their dynamics, and explore the possible consequences of using a particular approach to them by all major players on the world stage.

If we talk about the most general conclusions of the authors regarding the main directions of the Chinese security strategy-both at present and in the foreseeable future - they look quite encouraging. When analyzing China's military doctrine, the priority of economic development tasks is emphasized for it, which determines

G. I. Chufrin, Moscow: Nauka Publ., 2007, 327 p. (in Russian)

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defensive nature of the doctrine. P. B. Kamennov predicts that China's policy will be aimed at preventing war and reducing factors of instability (p. 55). Such a policy aims to create, by non-military means, the external and internal conditions that will ensure China's achievement of the status of a great Power, which has a dominant position in the Asia-Pacific region.

This course has already brought China considerable success, and nothing portends a rejection of it. With its policy, V. V. Mikheev notes, "China has provided the world community with good reasons to predict domestic political stability and economic growth in the short and medium term, as well as to count on China as a partner in the international anti-terrorist struggle" (p.36). It is also stated that there is a favorable political atmosphere in Russian-Chinese relations, which allows for the rapid development of economic and military-technical cooperation. At the same time, China-related challenges and threats to the security of the East Asian region and the world as a whole are discussed in detail.

The first place among them is occupied by the problem of Taiwan. It is viewed from different angles, and above all from the point of view of the internal political situation in China itself. It is emphasized that under no circumstances will China allow Taiwan to declare independence. In response, Beijing can take any measures, including military ones. In order to avoid any doubts in this regard, China adopted the "Law on Countering State Division" in 2005. Moreover, it is assumed that the country will prepare its general-purpose armed forces for operations in the Taiwan Strait in the near and medium term for the same purpose. At the same time, Taiwan is an important component of China's relations with the United States, and Beijing is trying to keep its main international counterparty within the framework of its current position - recognition of "one China". This encourages China to pursue a firm, but still balanced and cautious policy. The US desire to deploy a theater missile defense system in the Asia-Pacific region with the possible inclusion of Taiwan in its area of operation can seriously change the situation for the worse.

A significant part of the book is devoted to the analysis of the international reaction to China's growing economic and political power, to the strengthening of its position in the capital markets, finished products, services, and jobs. Certain risks to the country's economic security are associated with the chosen model of economic growth. There is an excessive dependence of the national economy on foreign trade, and, accordingly, on the state of the world economy (A. A. Rogozhin). The extensive development of the Chinese economy is increasingly drawing Beijing into competition for access to global sources of raw materials and energy. The main supplier of goods for export is assembly production carried out at enterprises with foreign capital, which aggravates China's dependence on imports of semi-finished products, equipment, and technologies.

China's energy strategy involves harnessing both domestic and external resources to ensure continued rapid economic growth. The first direction is related to improving energy use, improving industry management, and developing infrastructure. The second direction requires diversification of supplies and building up our own resource base abroad. The latter is aimed at gaining control over territories and water areas that are potentially rich in hydrocarbons, but are burdened with disputes about their nationality. We are talking about the islands of the South China Sea and the shelf of the East China Sea. E. A. Gorodilova notes that "the active and even aggressive behavior of Chinese companies in the global energy market causes legitimate concern for companies in other countries" (p. 126). To meet its energy needs, Beijing uses state power and political influence, cooperates with regimes that are in confrontation with Western powers, and invades markets where powerful TNCs have established themselves. Tough competition with other countries, such as India, Japan, and South Korea, which are also in dire need of external energy sources, does not exclude, however, the possibility of certain cooperation with them, especially since the threat of a general energy crisis requires such cooperation.

China's environmental problems are causing an increasing international response. N. G. Rogozhina emphasizes that these problems have become particularly dangerous due to the fact that they are superimposed on the lack of natural resources in the country and on demographic pressure. Doubts are expressed about the ability of China to provide long-term

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its population with food. The growing threat of a worsening food problem, the absorption of scarce arable land during urbanization, pollution and lack of drinking water sources are causing social conflicts to worsen. Along the entire periphery of state borders, tensions arise in relations with neighboring countries. All this encourages the Chinese leadership to change its approach to environmental protection and resource supply issues, including enhancing international cooperation.

These aspects of the globalization of China's security interests are also reflected in the analysis of its relations with its main partners - the United States, the EU, and Asian states. Here, of course, they appear in a much more differentiated form. China's partners have different views on the challenges it poses and the opportunities for global cooperation with it.

The long - term US policy towards China is traditionally evaluated ambivalently, from the perspective of the constantly changing balance between strategic partnership and competition-economic and military-political (V. B. Amirov). At the same time, in the phases of aggravation, the possibility of the United States waging trade wars against China, following the example of those that were waged against Japan in the 1980s, is not excluded. Long-term, and not only economic, but also political, pressure is exerted on Beijing to encourage it to significantly revalue the yuan. There is a tendency to increase anti-dumping procedures and claims regarding the protection of intellectual property. It is absolutely certain that competition between the United States and China for access to external sources of natural resources, especially energy, will increase. The ever-stated desire to involve China in a constructive solution to global problems is also countered by the constantly expressed concern of relevant US agencies about building up its military potential and strengthening its presence in those regions of Asia that are considered strategically important for the Americans. Such concerns are reinforced, according to the author, by the secrecy of information about China's military spending, and increasingly appearing in the Chinese press arguments about the need to develop an ocean-going navy. Attempts to contain Beijing are practically implemented in the restrictions imposed on military-technical cooperation with China by the United States and its NATO allies. At the same time, the United States is striving to expand its various contacts with the Chinese armed forces in order to obtain the necessary information about weapons programs, personnel training, and military planning.

Japan's approach to China is viewed in the light of the complex relations that have linked the two countries throughout their history, and with the indispensable presence of a third, senior partner - the United States. Stating the interdependence of Japan and China in the economy, politics, and public relations, G. F. Kunadze at the same time asserts that their relations today are threatened by a crisis. The threat is seen primarily in the change in the strategic orientation of the United States, which is less and less satisfied with the rapprochement of these countries. The confrontation between Japanese and Chinese nationalism also plays a significant role: the former refuses to bear the blame for its historical crimes, and the latter insists on it. The author predicts that in the foreseeable future "the pacifist mood of the Japanese mass consciousness will significantly weaken, and accordingly Tokyo will mature to the abolition of restrictions in the field of defense policy" (p. 185). It is argued that modern Japan has a "sovereign right"to do so. China, on the other hand, has both the right and the ability to react to such an action at its own discretion. This is supposed to lead to an acute crisis. The following factors may contribute to the complication of the situation: Taiwan's declaration of independence, on which Japan takes an ambiguous position, a dispute with China over the ownership of the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu), rivalry in Southeast Asia, and competition in energy markets. The hope that the development of the crisis situation will not follow the most dangerous scenarios is placed only on economic interdependence, and even on some hidden " compensatory mechanisms, the meaning and operation of which cannot be explained." In any case, the initiative in determining one or another outcome of the crisis is increasingly shifting to China. In Japan, such an initiative is not visible.

The EU's interest in China is partly economic, and partly related to the desire to use it to build relations in a multipolar world in such a way that the European Union has greater freedom of action. China is not yet seen as a serious competitor, at least in those industries that are based on the latest scientific achievements and where Europe accordingly has a serious advantage over it. The EU has little concern for China's internal development, nor for its military and political strength.

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relics, and the Taiwan problem. There are different views on Beijing's urgent demands to lift the arms embargo, but for now Europe is waiting. The only thing that the EU is more or less seriously afraid of is "the risks associated with the uncontrolled globalization of China" (A.V. Kuznetsov). We are talking, in particular, about illegal immigration of Chinese people, to a lesser extent-about environmental problems.

As for the relations between the two Korean states and China (A. N. Fedorovsky), they cannot be reduced to bilateral trade and economic interests in one case and to the nuclear issue in the other. The Korean Peninsula as a whole has always had a broader, geopolitical and geo-economic significance for China. Although this thesis is completely fair, from our point of view, it is not fully disclosed, however, it is quite definitely recorded, for example, the trends of fairly close economic integration between South Korea and China, which, by the way, raises serious questions in their relations with third countries, primarily with the United States. Beijing's influence is also shaping the institutional framework for bringing the DPRK's economy closer to the regional economy. While China is clearly opposed to North Korea's nuclear program, it does not want to escalate relations with the country because of its important geopolitical and strategic importance. Beijing is interested in gradually liberalizing the economic and political regime in the DPRK without sharp turns in one direction or another. This is supported by the demonstration effect of the market economy in China and the growing human contacts between the two countries.

The Republic of Korea has a similar impact on China, its culture, political regime, and way of life of the population, which causes some caution of the authorities in Beijing. While there are some differences between Beijing and Seoul over their attitude to the DPRK, there is still considerable closeness between them. As the most important economic and political partner for both Koreas, China retains the ability to play an important role not only in their rapprochement, but also in addressing key regional security issues. However, there are still many obstacles in this way, both due to the unpredictability of North Korea's policy and the wariness of certain parts of South Korean society towards Beijing's strategic goals.

China's policy in Southeast Asia is characterized as a "peaceful offensive" (V. V. Sumsky), which is dictated by the desire to gain access to sources of raw materials, energy, sales markets and ensure the safety of the flow of its own and imported goods. China's presence in this region is facilitated by the presence of a successful Chinese diaspora, which partly hinders expansion due to the difficult relations of the Chinese with the local population in the history of the Southeast Asian countries. China's offensive is well thought out, carefully prepared, and is developing simultaneously in many directions, both bilaterally and multilaterally. The favorable attitude of the ASEAN countries towards China today is also due to the fact that the Chinese development model, which combines authoritarian power in politics, the market, state regulation in the economy and moderate nationalism that does not repel foreign investors, is adequate to the models that were previously used in these countries themselves. The rationality of Beijing's behavior is also credible. At the same time, China's growing economic power is perceived not only as a chance for its own development, but also as a competitive challenge. The potential threat is not resolved, but only pushed aside for a while the question of ownership of disputed islands in the South China Sea. In addition, China's desire to gain a foothold in the region and use it as a springboard for strengthening its influence on a global scale collides with the desire of the United States to defend its dominant position here and prevent China's rapprochement with the Southeast Asian countries for this purpose. The predicted escalation of Sino-American rivalry in the region raises difficult questions for Russia's policy.

The book traces in detail the process of formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the transformation of its tasks and functions (K. L. Syroezhkin). The article considers China's consistent steps aimed at strengthening both the SCO itself and its role in it, especially against the background of the US desire to strengthen its position in the region. Attention is drawn to a certain discrepancy between the interests of the SCO member states and the parallel functioning of other similar organizations. Relations between China and Russia are described as "a partnership in which China began to play the first violin." This partnership, from the author's point of view, is burdened with "a lot of problems related to objective difficulties in Russian-Chinese relations, with non-Russian relations."-

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certainties in relations between both Russia and China with the West in general and with the United States in particular, with a potential conflict between Chinese ambitions in Central Asia and the Russian historical memory of preserving zones of influence in this region " (pp. 279-280). The fate of the Russian-Chinese partnership, like the SCO, is linked to the existence of a common goal - to reduce the influence of the United States in Central Asia. The disappearance of this goal may call this partnership into question. Moreover, according to the author, at a certain stage, the strategic interests of China and Russia may come into conflict, and then China may try to force the states of the region to choose between their investment opportunities and Russia's" imperial ambitions".

The last group of countries in the panorama of China's international relations is South Asian (S. I. Lunev). Relations between India and China are characterized as a strategic rivalry in the future, but cooperation in a number of areas is predicted for the near future. The latter is associated with the similarity of tasks and roles in the global economic and political systems, the former - with cultural and civilizational differences. China seems to be much more oriented towards the collectivism characteristic of traditional Eastern society than India. The chapter describes in detail the vicissitudes of the Indo-Chinese conflict in the second half of the last century. The need to counter US hegemonic aspirations and Muslim extremism has contributed to the normalization of contacts and convergence of positions on major global issues. It made it possible to mitigate rivalry in relations with third countries, including the Southeast Asian countries and Russia. Nevertheless, the main lines of long-term confrontation remain, which also affects the current foreign policy of both countries.

The above brief analysis of the main content of the reviewed monograph shows that its authors consider the globalization of China's security interests as a very important process for the whole world, and first of all for its neighbors, but at the same time an extremely complex and contradictory process. This process is fraught with both undoubted chances for strengthening and improving the world order, as well as considerable challenges and risks. In general, the paper under consideration is characterized by a view in which the first components definitely dominate over the second. However, the potential danger of a possible violation of the security balance that exists in a number of areas and regions that are sensitive to the world community is also not ignored. These include energy and the environment, global and regional rivalry with the United States, Japan, and India, the Taiwan problem, and areas of intertwining and clashing interests in Central and Southeast Asia. The presence and potential possibility of aggravation of these problems require unremitting efforts to build and constantly correct the dynamic balance of security for all leading players on the world stage, including, of course, Russia. It seems that this monographic study contributes significantly to the development of fundamental approaches to solving this primary task.


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