Libmonster ID: U.S.-1306
Author(s) of the publication: A. V. SEMIN


Candidate of Political Sciences Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences

USA military-political situation in the Asia-Pacific region, Keywords: ChinaJapan

Relations in the US-China-Japan triangle determine to a decisive extent the nature of the military-political situation in the Asia-Pacific region (APR). Recently, it has become more complicated. There is even a sense of going back to the Cold War. The difference is that before it was a confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union, and today - with China. Although relations between the United States and Russia are not without clouds, there is a clear shift in emphasis in time and space*.

In his speech to the Australian Parliament in November 2011, US President B. "Our new focus on this region reflects a fundamental truth," Obama said.: The United States was and always will be a Pacific power."1. When presenting the new US defense strategy in January 2012, he stated :" We will strengthen our presence in the Asia-Pacific region, and budget cuts will not be made at the expense of this critical region."2. And this is despite the fact that the new strategy does not provide for the conduct of "two regional wars"at the same time. There are simply no resources for this: the country's military budget is planned to be reduced by almost $500 billion in the next 10 years. But after the US withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, the Pentagon's focus is shifting to China.3

In June 2012, US Secretary of Defense L. Panetta toured Asian countries to explain the new US defense policy, primarily the pivotal role that the Asia-Pacific region plays in it. On the eve of this trip, in his speech at the US Naval Academy, making routine diplomatic curtsies about the importance of strengthening relations with China through defense departments, he stressed: "The Chinese Armed Forces are growing and modernizing. We must be vigilant. We must be strong. We must be ready for any challenge. " 4

And at the forum in Singapore, before the defense ministers of East Asian states, the head of the Pentagon supported his words with concrete data on the beginning redeployment of the country's naval forces in the Asia-Pacific region and equipping them with the latest high-tech weapons. By 2020, the disparity of US Navy ships in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans will change from the current "50-50" to "60-50

* For more information, see: Leksyutina Ya. V. USA-China: Rivalry in Southeast Asia is getting Worse / / Asia and Africa Today, 2012, No. 3 (editor's note).

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40". In the Pacific Ocean, six aircraft carriers, most cruisers and destroyers, coastal warships and submarines will be on combat duty. The Pentagon also plans to increase the number of military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region, expand the geography of visits of its warships to the ports of countries in the region, including the states of the Indian Ocean basin. Military power is expected to be enhanced with a high-tech fifth-generation fighter, an improved Virginia-class submarine, new electronic warfare and communications capabilities, and improved precision armaments5.

American naval commanders also have high hopes for a new generation of DDG-1000"stealth" destroyers (for radar), capable of conducting combat operations both in the open ocean and in coastal waters. A full-time Beijing hawk from the National Defense University of the People's Republic of China, Major General Zhang Zhaozhong, found it necessary and possible to publicly ridicule these hopes, threatening to destroy this "miracle" of military technology with a swarm of fishing boats packed with explosives if necessary.6

Especially Panetta stressed that one of the pillars of Washington's strategy is bringing allied and partnership relations with the countries of the region to a higher level.


Beijing seems to be well aware of the essence of US policy towards China, never deluding itself about Washington's rhetoric about "strategic partnership".

The latest White Paper, "China's National Defense in 2010," published in March 2011, states: "International strategic rivalry over international order, the complex power of the state, geopolitics, etc., is becoming more acute every day, and the contradictions between developed and developing countries, traditional large countries, and newly industrial countries with rapidly developing markets are heating up, local conflicts are growing. conflicts and regional "hot spots" are constantly making themselves felt"7. The difficult situation in the Asia-Pacific region was highlighted: "The security situation in the Asia-Pacific region is complex and volatile. ...National and religious contradictions are becoming more and more acute, there is an escalation of disputes over interests in territories and marine areas, as well as rampant terrorist, separatist and extremist actions. Deep transformations are taking place in the strategic architecture of the Asia-Pacific region, and the respective countries are increasing their investments in the strategic sphere. The strengthening of the US military alliance with the Asia-Pacific region has increased the scale of interference in regional security affairs. " 8

A New York correspondent for the Italian newspaper La Stampa reported that in his speech on December 6, 2011, at a meeting of the Central Military Commission, Chinese President Hu Jintao allegedly called on the command of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) to "fully prepare for war"9. The Chinese side did not reject or confirm the content of its leader's speech.

Washington, considering the strengthening of China's military and economic power as a threat to US national interests, is purposefully improving the system of military cooperation with its military allies in East Asia-Japan, the South-

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North Korea, as well as Australia, increasing the grouping of troops in the region. Currently, an American military contingent of about 50 thousand people is stationed in Japan10, and 28 thousand people are stationed in South Korea11.

Moreover, an American-Australian agreement was signed on the deployment of up to 2,500 American Marines in the vicinity of Darwin. It is also planned to place logistics services, combat and auxiliary aircraft, and ships of the US Navy. Obama announced plans to establish a US-Australian naval base on the Cocos Islands in the Indian Ocean, which belong to Australia. The United States also intends to assist Australia in the combat and special training of a special "amphibious permanent readiness group", created on the basis of the 3rd regiment (formerly, by the way, the parachute) of the Australian Armed Forces. The group is supposed to be assigned tasks similar to those solved by the US Marine Corps. The group will be equipped with amphibious assault vehicles, ships, helicopters and heavy armored vehicles. According to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the People's Republic of China, Washington's plans for Australia actually "lead to a cold war between China and the United States."

In April 2012, the first 200 US Marines arrived in Australia.

The United States continues to provide significant military assistance to Taiwan, ignoring the negative attitude of the Chinese side. In September 2011, the United States decided to supply the island with weapons worth $5.85 billion. In addition, in May 2012, the US House of Representatives approved the sale of 66 F-16 combat aircraft to Taiwan in addition to upgrading the Taiwanese Air Force. 12

The issue of basing the latest American warships for operations in the coastal zone at the Changi base in Singapore has been agreed.

In February 2012, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping made his first official visit to the United States. The visit, according to Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Cui Tangkai, was "aimed at implementing the consensus of the two leaders and further strengthening China-US relations of interaction and partnership."13. The Chinese leader met with President Obama and Vice President John Kerry.Biden.

In America, Xi Jinping was given a lavish reception: it was undoubtedly taken into account that the guest is considered the future successor of Hu Jintao as President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee. For Xi Jinping himself, the visit was important in terms of raising his profile both inside and outside the country.

Washington, for its part, was determined to convey to the Chinese leadership its vision of global and regional development issues, as well as a number of aspects of bilateral relations.

Despite the protocol nature of Xi Jinping's visit, the exchange of views was quite frank. Thus, Obama, while stating the vital importance of strengthening US-China relations, repeated the well-known thesis addressed invariably to China that "increasing power and prosperity require greater responsibility." 14 Washington has been persistent in demanding that China follow international trade norms, adjust its trade balance, and take measures to improve the situation with the world's largest economies. human rights in the country. The parties did not find a common language on the issue of the ratio between the yuan and the dollar, and the Chinese leader did not accept the American assessment of "discrimination of human rights against the peoples of Tibet"15.

Fending off criticism of China, Xi Jinping stressed that the two countries should develop relations on an equal basis. He also pointed out that the central and most sensitive issue in relations between China and the United States is the Taiwan issue, calling on Washington to stop interfering in Sino-Taiwanese relations and refuse to supply weapons to the island.

Obama hailed China's" peaceful form of ascendancy " while urging it to reconsider its tough stance in asserting its interests in the South China Sea and other parts of East Asia, building on its growing military capabilities.16

Thus, the February visit of the future leader of the People's Republic of China to the United States highlighted the existing differences between them on significant issues of world and regional politics and became evidence of the growing rivalry within the framework of the "partnership" of the two largest economic powers in the world.

In May 2012, the next annual report of the US Department of Defense to Congress on Chinese military power states that the PRC "is implementing a long-term comprehensive modernization program in order to expand the ability to conduct military operations and achieve victory in "local wars in the context of informatization", in other words, in short-term high-intensity regional military operations based on informatization.""17. The main task of the PLA remains to prepare for possible military actions in the Taiwan Strait, including preventing US intervention in this conflict.18

According to the Pentagon, China is using its growing military budget to develop advanced technologies for cruise missiles, short-and medium-range conventional ballistic missiles, and anti-ballistic missiles.-

page 4

The creation of the J-20 stealth fighter, the testing of the first Chinese aircraft carrier, and so on are also causing concern among US military officials. 19


Strengthening the alliance with Japan for Washington is an integral part of the Program to improve the system of forward basing of the US armed forces in the Pacific Theater of Operations (Theater of Operations). The Pentagon believes that the US-Japanese alliance serves as an important means of countering such "threats" as "accelerated construction and modernization of the PLA, and increased activity of the Chinese Navy in the Pacific area." 20

In the context of the worsening situation on the Korean Peninsula, Tokyo, under pressure from Washington, made a foreign policy reversal from the political rapprochement with China that was planned in the period 2006 - 2009 to even closer military and political cooperation with the United States. Japan's national defense program for the second decade, adopted at the end of 2010, provides for " ensuring the ability of the Japanese self-Defense forces to conduct modern and active combat operations." Thus, Japan abandoned the previously existing concept of "passive", "exclusively defensive nature" of the actions of the self-defense forces.21

At the same time, the Japanese leadership motivates the need for a radical revision of the nature of military policy by complicating the military-strategic situation in East Asia associated with the "rise of China". It, the text of this program document emphasizes, " affects the influence of the United States and leads to a significant change in the balance of power in the world." The" lack of transparency " of China's military spending by the Japanese command is seen as a threat to Japan's security 22.

Japan is getting involved in broader military-technical cooperation with the United States. It is already taking part in the development of missile defense elements in the Pacific Theater, and intends to participate in the creation of the American fifth-generation F-35 fighter, which is planned to be adopted by the Japanese Air Force 23. Tokyo also intends to cooperate with Australia, South Korea, and NATO countries in this area. Now you can do this: The ban on arms exports, which had been in effect since 1967, was lifted. This decision was made by the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers in December 2011. 24

Playing the role of a key US ally in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan is ready to become a link in Washington's new system of military cooperation in the region, which, along with the United States, will include Japan, Australia and South Korea. In May 2010, at a meeting in Tokyo of the heads of the military and foreign ministries of Japan and Australia, a military agreement was signed in case of joint operations of the military contingents of the two countries. Previously, this kind of agreement in Japan existed only with the United States.

In January 2011, in Seoul, the defense ministers of Japan and South Korea signed two important military agreements that laid the foundation for a future military pact. The initiative in this case also belonged to the American side. As for the reason for the creation of the pact, American experts directly name China as such, from which, in their opinion, the threat comes. In fact, the conditions have been prepared for the formation of two trilateral military-political alliances: the United States-Japan - South Korea and the United States-Japan-Australia. In other words, block structures are emerging in East Asia that did not exist even during the Cold War. Their goal is to create a kind of cordon to counter the strengthening of China.

Under some cooling in Japanese-American relations between Tokyo and Washington, the first official visit of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to the United States since the Democratic Party came to power in Japan was summed up.

On the eve of the visit, an agreement was reached at a meeting of the US-Japan Security Advisory Committee on the transfer of 9,000 US Marines from Okinawa. This problem has been an irritant in relations between the two countries for a number of years. According to the agreement, 9 thousand US Marines are transferred from the Japanese base Futemma to other areas of the Pacific Ocean.

* For more information, see: Basov A. N. PLA on take-off: fifth-generation fighter / / Asia and Africa Today, 2012, No. 5 (editor's note).

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ocean-mainly to Guam, but also to Hawaii and Australia. At the same time, a contingent of rapid deployment Marines consisting of about 10 thousand people remains in Okinawa itself. Tokyo will allocate $3.1 billion for relocation. The US State Department noted that solving this problem will allow deepening military cooperation between the two countries in ensuring cybersecurity, sharing intelligence information and missile defense.25

During the talks in Washington, the head of the White House welcomed the agreement reached on the relocation of Marines from Okinawa. For his part, the Japanese Prime Minister said that this was made possible "through cooperation within the framework of a bilateral alliance to optimize the presence of US armed forces in the region and reduce the burden on Okinawa." 26

In the joint statement "Common Vision for the Future", the parties declared their desire to strengthen partnership relations in the field of security, economy, and energy, and confirmed the indissolubility of the US-Japan alliance. Obama called Japan "one of America's closest allies not only in the Asia-Pacific region, but also around the world."27

American experts emphasize that the Japan-US alliance is of fundamental importance in "deterring China's attempts to establish its dominance in the region and supporting American and South Korean troops in the event of war with North Korea." 28

The Japanese Prime Minister and the US president said that China should act within the framework of international rules and norms, including when resolving disputes in international waters.29

However, the partners were not able to agree on all the issues. So, uncertainty remained about the location of the relocation of the US Marine Corps air base Futemma on Okinawa 30.

During Pentagon Chief L. Panetta's trip to Asia in June 2012 in Seoul, the Republic of Korea, the United States and Japan agreed to strengthen cooperation in the event of possible aggression from North Korea.31

The US-China rivalry in East Asia is not only characteristic of the military and political sphere, but also extends to the spheres of economy, diplomacy, and regional construction.

Thus, in January 2010, at the initiative of China, the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area (10+1) Agreement entered into force. The FTA is the largest in the world in terms of population coverage -1.9 billion people, the total GDP of the incoming countries is $6 trillion, and the volume of trade is $4.5 trillion. An FTA is an effective measure to protect countries from the global crisis and reduce their dependence on the US market. Equally important, the conditions have been created for a gradual shift away from settlements in US dollars, and for the renminbi to become a regional and, in the long run, an international currency.32

In fact, Washington's response to China's move to strengthen its influence in the region was Washington's decision to implement the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) project, which provides for the creation of a free trade zone in the Asia-Pacific region, with the participation of a number of East Asian countries: Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei. After some hesitation, Japan seems to have decided to join the TPP. In addition to the obvious economic reasons, this shows Japan's military and political dependence on the United States33. However, during a visit to Washington, Japanese Prime Minister Noda did not give a final and long-awaited answer on the sensitive issue of Japan's entry into the TPP for Obama personally.

By increasing its military presence in the region, Washington is simultaneously stepping up its diplomatic activities here, seeking to weaken China's influence as a regional leader. So, for almost a decade, acting through its supporters, the United States has been hindering the implementation of a project actively supported by China to create a regional organization - the East Asian Community (EAC) consisting of 10 ASEAN countries, China, Japan and South Korea.

Washington has recently sought to play a more active role as a "defender of the interests" of the region's countries - Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and others - in their disputes with China, using, among other things, its participation in the East Asian summits. Opposing Beijing, Washington supported Japan's position during the 2010 Sino-Japanese incident near the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku), and sided with Vietnam and the Philippines in their dispute with the PRC over the rights to own islands in the South China Sea.

Chinese officials accuse Washington of provoking the Philippines to detain Chinese fishermen near Huangyan Island in April 2012. This incident has led to an escalation of tensions in Sino-Philippine relations.34

The presence of multiplying hotbeds of tension not only contributes to the complication of the overall military-political situation in the region. Some American experts believe that in a similar scenario to NATO's actions in Libya, these hotbeds of tension may become a pretext for US military intervention in order to "contain China."35


Assessing the effectiveness of this policy of Washington in relation to the PRC, we should take into account:

page 6

please note that the rapidly rising Asian giant today did not use all the resources to counteract American pressure. In particular, Washington cannot be absolutely sure that its main military and political ally in the region today, Japan, following national interests and under the influence of a stronger China, will not dare to weaken its dependence on the United States in the future.

The background of such a possible reorientation was, as is known, revealed by former Prime Minister Ya. Hatoyama in his work "My Political Philosophy". In it, he pointed out a global trend: "... the era of US-led planetary globalism is coming to an end." Another important trend, he called " the transformation of China into one of the leading economic powers." Hatoyama, given this situation, posed a rhetorical question:"How should Japan maintain its political and economic independence and protect its national interests, being between the United States and China?" 36

Tokyo's hesitation on this issue, which arose in 2006-2009, was nipped in the bud by Washington. The worsening situation on the Korean Peninsula and the incident with the seizure of a Chinese fishing trawler by the Japanese Coast Guard in September 2010 in the area of the uninhabited but oil-rich Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku) * helped the Americans do this.

However, the Japanese still have a certain degree of freedom on this path, namely in the economic and financial sphere. In it, Tokyo and Beijing often show mutual understanding in the context of strong economic interdependence, common regional (primarily economic) interests, and the desire to coordinate counteraction to the consequences of the global crisis, the causes of which are attributed by both Chinese and Japanese experts to the United States.

This kind of commonality between Tokyo and Beijing poses a potential threat to the allied relations that have existed for decades between Tokyo and Washington. Moreover, the global crisis has highlighted major flaws in the international financial system, which is still based primarily on the use of the US dollar. Signs that cooperation is possible in the search for a way out of the current unstable global economic situation have emerged recently.

Thus, during the official visit of Japanese Prime Minister Noda to China in late December 2011 and his meeting with Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Wen Jiabao, an agreement was reached on the use of national currencies in mutual settlements between companies of the two countries instead of the dollar. The parties also agreed on Japan's purchase of Chinese government bonds37.

These agreements indicate a certain warming of bilateral relations after their serious deterioration in 2010, related to the incident in the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku), as well as the proximity of the two countries ' positions in the direction that may in the future create prerequisites for limiting the role of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. This is in line with Beijing's long-term plans to gradually free itself from dollar dependence and strengthen the yuan's position in the global market. Since June 1, 2012, Japan and China have started direct exchange of their currencies without conversion to dollars.

The development of this area of cooperation between the two countries is fraught with risks for the US financial and economic system. Let's not forget that the two countries have the largest foreign holdings of US treasuries. In the long run, it seems that China may decide to use these weapons against the United States under certain conditions.

At the same time, in March 2012

* For more information, see: Rusakov E. M. The ghosts return from the "cold" // Asia and Africa today, 2010, N 10; Rusakov E. M. In the captivity of patriarchy and provincialism / / Asia and Africa today, 2010, N 12 (editor's note).

page 7

The Chinese authorities announced their intention to start patrolling the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku) area. The Japanese side protested and sent its patrol vessels there. When the incident was resolved, there was a new reason for unfriendly controversy between the parties. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, who is known for his nationalist beliefs, said that the Tokyo municipality plans to buy three islands from the Senkaku archipelago that are currently privately owned (which came as a surprise to many observers). The group includes five uninhabited islands, and only one belongs to the Japanese government. Explaining the decision, Ishihara stressed :" If you leave the islands in their current status, it is not known what will happen to them in the future."

Regarding the Ishihara Plan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said that " the implementation of the plan will not only damage bilateral relations,but also Japan's international image."

In August 2012, relations were further strained by the dispute over the ownership of the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku). A group of activists from Hong Kong landed on one of the islands, some of them were arrested by the Japanese Coast Guard and released a few days later. In response to the incident, the Chinese Ambassador in Tokyo was protested, and Japanese nationalists hoisted Japanese flags on one of the disputed islands. Beijing, in turn, expressed strong protest against the antics of Japanese extremists, and anti-Japanese demonstrations were held in the southern Chinese provinces.

Today, it is impossible to give an accurate forecast of how the US-China confrontation in East Asia will develop and how much China is able to withstand the onslaught of Washington, relying on a steadily growing economy, a positive balance in trade with the United States, huge gold and foreign exchange reserves, and a strengthening military potential. At this stage, Beijing refrains from reacting sharply to Washington's attempts to keep its position in East Asia in its hands, but it seems that China is gradually building up its forces for a possible response.

Japan is destined at this stage and in the foreseeable future to balance between the United States and China. The future will show how well Tokyo can implement such a policy.

1 The White House. Office of the Press Secretary. 17.11.2011. Remarks By President Obama to the Australian Parliament. Parliament House, Canberra, Australia - parliament

2 Remarks by the President on the Defense Strategy Review. 5.01.2012 - eview

3 14.01.2012.

4 U.S. Department of Defense. U.S. Naval Academy Commencement. As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta, Annapolis, MD, Tuesday, May 29, 2012 - ID-1679

5 U.S. Department of Defense. Shangri-La Security Dialogue. As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta, Shangri-La Hotel, Singapore, Saturday, June 02, 2012 -

6 Stealth destroyer, at over $3 billion apiece, is US Navy's latest answer to rising China // Associated Press, 3.06.12.

7 Press Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, Beijing, March 2011. China's National Defense in 2010 (in Russian) - - 10/20/content_23676601.htm

8 Там же - - 10/20/content_23676601_2.htm

Mastrollli Paolo. 9 La Cina sfida gli Usa "Pronti alla guerra". Hu Jintao: la Marina deve rafforzarsi e modernizzarsi ("China challenges the US: ' We are ready for war'. The fleet is being reformed and modernized) / / La Stampa. 8.12.2011 -

10 U.S. Department of Defense. Lisa Daniel. Military Remains Ready to Help Japan // American Forces Press Service, 11.04.2011 -

11 U.S. Department of Defense. Marshall Tyrone C.Jr. Obama Praises U.S. Troops' Legacy in South Korea // American Forces Press Service, 25.03.2012 -

Zheng Yongnian, Lye Liang Fook & Chen Gang. 12 China's Foreign Policy in 2011: Coping with Shifting Geopolitics and Maintaining Stable External Relations // National University of Singapore. EAI (East Asian Institute) Background Brief N 685. 23.12.2011 -

13, 10.02.2012.

14, 16.02.2012.

15 Ibidem.

16 Ibid.

17 Annual Report to Congress. Military and Security Developments Involving the People's republic of China 2012. Office of the Secretary of Defense. May 2012 - .pdf

18 Ibidem, p. iv.

19 Ibid.

20 The Daily Yomiuri. 20.06.2011.

21 National Defense Program Guide Items. FY 2011. Tokyo. 17.12.2011.

22 Ibidem.

23 Asia Times. 20.12.2011.

24 Russian - 02?03/content_24545625.htm 3.02.2012.

Jaffe Greg and Heil Emily. 25 U.S. comes to agreement with Japan to move 9,000 Marines off Okinawa // The Washington Post, 27.04.2012.

Nakamura David. 26 Obama, Japan's Noda hail security alliance after bilateral meeting // The Washington Post, 30.04.2012.

27 The White House. Remarks by President Obama and Prime Minister Noda of Japan at Joint Press Conference, 30.04.2012 - -minister-noda-japan-joint-press-confer 4

28 Ibid.

29 Ibid.

30 Yomiuri. 2.05.2012 -

31 Seoul, Washington and Tokyo agreed to strengthen cooperation in the event of North Korean aggression / / ITAR-TASS, 2.06.2012.

32 See for more information: Semin A.V. East Asian Community: what prevents you from implementing the idea / / Problems of the Far East, No. 6.

33 9.11.2010

Perlezjane. 34 Dispute Between China and Philippines Over Island Becomes More Heated // The New York Times, 10.05.2012.

35 Stars and Stripes. 11.01.2011.

Hatoyama Yu. 36 My Political Philosophy // Journal Voice, 10.08.2009.

37 ITAR-TASS. 25.12.2011.

38 Asia Times. 20.04.2012 -


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