Candidate of Historical Sciences, Deputy Editor-in-chief of the journal "Problems of the Far East"
A BIT OF HISTORY
At the end of February 1972, an event occurred that was essentially significant, not only for its time, but also for the entire subsequent development of world history and international politics up to the present day.
Visit of the then President of the United States, R. R. Tolkien. Nixon's visit to China, his meeting with Mao Zedong and the signing of the famous "Shanghai communique" contributed to the formation of a different geopolitical reality in the world compared to the past: the system of "balance of power"has replaced the bloc confrontation. Ideological confrontation gradually began to fade into the background, giving way more and more clearly to the struggle of competing national interests. According to some modern researchers, it was February 1972 that became the starting point of the process of disintegration of the bipolar system of the world.
Whether this is true or not, many subsequent historical events should probably still be regarded as indirect consequences of that momentous visit. Its direct result was the beginning of normalization of relations between the two largest world powers - the United States and China. Since then, and to this day, these relations continue to have a major impact on the state of the global political and economic climate.
During the second half of the twentieth century, relations between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China underwent radical changes. From outright hostility in the 1950s and careful "probing" of each other in the second half of the 1960s, through the Kissinger-Zhou Enlai ping-pong diplomacy in the early 1970s, they transformed into mutual diplomatic recognition and the establishment of strategic ties. At the same time, this movement was by no means straightforward. On the contrary, it was marked by a sharp zigzag pattern: from the American maneuvering between China and Taiwan under President Reagan to the almost complete freezing of bilateral contacts after the Tiananmen events of 1989.
NEW CENTURY - NEW CHALLENGES
In the seven years that have passed since the beginning of the new twenty-first century, China has been actively integrating itself into the international economic system, and not as an object, but as one of the leading subjects of the world economy. At the same time, it was a period of the first steps on the path of China's advancement from the position of a leading regional power to a full-fledged global superpower status. It is obvious that in the process of China's transformation into a global superpower, its relations with the other and so far only superpower - the United States-remain central to Chinese foreign policy.
Beijing officially recognized relations with the United States as "the most important bilateral relationship in the world", which not only affects the interests of both countries, but also significantly affects stability in Asia and the situation in the world as a whole. The American leadership's overall assessment of relations with China was expressed in the statement of their " stable and progressive development."
However, it is not at all simple, and such general characteristics of the parties to their relationship do not really reflect either the many nuances inherent in them or the global trends that affect their state. That is why, in our opinion, the assessment of US-China relations as relations of cooperation and competition would be more accurate. At the same time, it is probably more legitimate to put rivalry in the first place.
China's rejection of the style, methods, and philosophy of U.S. behavior in the international arena was once again confirmed in the documents of the 17th CPC Congress held in Beijing in October 2007. In the international section of the report, Hu Jintao, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, did not name a single country that has been accused or denoted actions that China does not agree with. At the same time, the thesis of the irreversibility of multipolarity combined with the condemnation of the policy of force, the demand for co-operation between the two countries.-
Compliance with the UN Charter, the norms and principles of international law and the democratization of international relations leaves no doubt that the United States remains the main target of criticism and the global antagonist of the PRC.
Moreover, the anti-Americanism of the report has noticeably increased in comparison with the documents of the previous (2002) supreme Chinese party forum: previously, only American attempts to "strengthen unipolarity"were criticized. This trend is quite natural and natural, because over the past five years, China itself has also grown stronger, stronger and feels more and more wealthy and able to challenge the United States seriously. However, while doing it in a veiled form.
For its part, the United States does not hide its concern about the sharp strengthening of China. The White House's National Security Strategy states that a number of Chinese policies are of "concern" to the United States, including "the continued hidden growth of the Chinese armed forces, support for resource-rich states without taking into account the situation inside these countries and their incorrect behavior in the international arena," 1
The report of the bipartisan Congressional Committee on Economic and Security Issues in US - China Relations explicitly states that "negative trends in US-China relations harm long-term US economic and security interests, since in many ways China's interests, goals, and values do not coincide with those of the United States." 2.
The discrepancy between the active development of trade and economic ties between the two countries and the growth of their mutual suspicion of each other in the political and military-strategic fields is becoming more and more obvious and prominent. Washington's publication of a number of foreign policy documents and initiatives in early 2006 suggests that the United States intends to actively counteract the growth of China's influence, especially in areas where its policies, in the opinion of Americans, infringe on their national interests.
The main conceptual difference between the United States and China lies in their views on the future order of the world order: The United States aims to create a unipolar world under its own leadership, while China (along with Russia) expresses its desire to achieve multipolarity. To achieve unipolarity and preeminence in this system, the United States needs to achieve a decisive advantage over both rivals. However, in the case of a steady and uncompromising commitment of each of the parties to the implementation of their tasks, potential antagonism due to the incompatibility of their goals can easily transform into real antagonism. This, in turn, will inevitably lead to a change in the balance of power, both at the regional and global levels.
Some signs of such a change can be noticed right now. First, it is becoming increasingly clear that it is impossible for America alone to have a decisive influence on the course of world development. Second, the failure of the military campaign in Iraq casts doubt on the Pentagon's ability to fight large-scale wars over the next decade. Third, American leadership in the global economy is weakening. Under these circumstances, the United States has become concerned that, for all its economic, financial, technological, and military strength, it will not be strong enough to serve as the sole superpower.
The United States sees China's development model and its vision of rebuilding the world as a threat to its own well-being. The Chinese model, unlike the American one, does not imply an indispensable, and most importantly, immediate "hybrid" of a market economy with a Western-style democracy. While China does not deny the expediency of social democratization in principle, unlike some other countries, it is moving in this direction gradually and meaningfully. Having chosen its own path, Beijing "gropes for rocks while wading through the river."
Such a cautious and balanced approach makes the United States fear that the implementation of the Chinese model in practice will contribute to the formation of a new structure of the world order and, thus, may call into question its global leadership. Moreover, monopolarity, which manifests itself in the form of openly forceful imposition by the United States on the rest of the world of its sometimes rather dubious attitudes and recipes, causes periodically increasing attacks of global allergies. What is worth, for example, the policy of forcible democratization of developing countries, which turned out to be simply counterproductive.
Today, according to some surveys, 52% of Chinese citizens and 60% of Russians believe that "the United States has a negative impact on the world"3. Even many citizens of countries that are allies of the United States see them as the main threat to peace. According to a Harris Interactive survey, 46% of Spaniards, 32% of Germans, 31% of Frenchmen, 30% of Englishmen and a significant number of the population of other European countries think so4. At the same time, as you know, America occupies a leading position in the world in terms of military spending, which in 2006 amounted to 528.7 billion US dollars. China is in fourth place in this indicator ($49.5 billion).5.
Beijing also has serious concerns about the US policy of strategically encircling China with defensive alliances and partnerships, and the associated increase in the US military presence in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
At the same time, in its relations with America, the PRC constantly demonstrates its readiness for compromises and flexible maneuvering. For example, since 2003, China has been pursuing a foreign policy based on the concept of "peaceful ascent", which, according to the United States, is based on the concept of "peaceful ascent".
According to Chinese theorists, it is intended, on the one hand, to ensure the independent and independent development of the country, and on the other, to contribute to the preservation and strengthening of international peace.
This concept is based on the peculiarities of the national mentality of the Chinese, according to which their country, which at certain historical stages put up with a temporary suspension from decisive participation in regional and global affairs, should not always "vegetate on the sidelines". By starting to implement this concept, the PRC is at the same time trying to convince the world around it that its economic growth and the growth of its military potential will not be a threat to peace and stability. It is constantly emphasized that other countries will also be able to benefit from this "rise", including additional opportunities for their economic development due to the capacity of the Chinese domestic market. Nevertheless, it is obvious that the end result of the chosen course should be the promotion of China to the role of the main power in East Asia, and in the long term, it should gradually achieve parity with the United States in the main parameters of global policy.
In 2005, the Chinese leadership made certain adjustments to the tactics of moving towards the above-mentioned strategic goal. The slogan of "peace and development", borrowed from the past, was put forward in the framework of the foreign policy concept of "harmonization of international relations". In fact, we are talking about practical steps to form a multipolar system of the world with several power centers - the United States, the European Union, Russia, and Japan - and one of them, according to Beijing's plan, should certainly be China.
Thus, Beijing agreed to slow down the pace of progress towards the intended goal, based on the fact that the fight against hegemonic manifestations in American politics is not a priority for it, unless these manifestations directly infringe on the interests of the PRC. This adjustment of positions expressed Beijing's desire to avoid participation in a global and comprehensive confrontation for a certain time, reserving the role of a third-party "third force" that has the widest range of capabilities in its potential. All this is quite in the spirit of the instructions of Deng Xiaoping, who urged "to hide opportunities, wait for the right moment, take advantage of your advantages only when a favorable situation arises for this."
Nevertheless, the rapid economic growth of the PRC, the presence of a huge population, the ever-increasing need for resources, and Beijing's active and energetic foreign policy are increasingly worrying the United States and its allies. Of course, they are not happy about the prospect of a "new bipolarity", the possibility of China achieving global superpower status and becoming a power center that is clearly antagonistic to the Western world.
The United States is somewhat reassured only by the fact that, unlike the former USSR, China does not try to spread communist ideology in the world and in every possible way avoids involvement in the struggle against capitalism as a social system. Moreover, Chinese leaders believe that their success will depend, among other things, on how well the country integrates into the modern international system.
American analysts believe, not without reason, that China's behavior is determined not so much by the postulates of Marxism-Leninism as by the ideals of Chinese nationalism, so the ideological struggle-one of the key factors underlying the confrontation between the USSR and the United States on the world stage - has given way to "measures to contain" this nationalism.
The problem also lies in the fact that China has long established itself as a country that firmly and consistently defends its positions, and this has repeatedly baffled US political strategists responsible for American policy towards Beijing. Finally, there is another, perhaps the most important reason why the American leadership is forced to refrain from open confrontation unless absolutely necessary. This is the dependence of American companies on China, which I believe is a very important factor.-
It is their largest partner, a constantly growing and developing market. Today, the relative stability of US-China relations is based on a solid foundation of bilateral trade at the level of $ 300 billion, a solid "cushion" of American investment in China, and the latter's interest in the economic and technological dividends that it receives in America, using them for its own development needs.
WHAT DID THE PAST YEAR GIVE AND WHAT DOES THE CURRENT YEAR PROMISE
In 2007, Sino-American relations continued to develop, reaching, according to the Chinese side, the level of "normal"relations6. However, despite the fact that both the United States and China recognized the past year as "one of the most favorable" in terms of developing ties between the two countries, not everything was as rosy as it seems at first glance.
A certain decline in relations was noted in late July and early August, when a year before the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, a campaign was launched in the West criticizing China, related to the publication of a report by Amnesty International on human rights violations in the PRC. American politicians immediately joined in. Members of the U.S. House of Representatives from both major parties - Dana Rohrabacher and Maxine Waters-submitted a draft resolution to the House Foreign Affairs Committee calling for a boycott of the Beijing Olympics. At the same time, congressmen referred not only to the issue of human rights, but also accused Beijing of supporting the regimes of North Korea, Burma and Sudan.
Attaching great importance to the upcoming Olympic Games, the Chinese leadership is extremely sensitive to critical comments about this event. One can't help but conclude that the West, led by the United States, has decided to take advantage of this circumstance and once again try to put pressure on China, whose independent policy in the international arena, which largely runs counter to the American one, is causing more and more deep concern in the Western world.
Nevertheless, cooperation between China and the United States continued in 2007. The greatest success should be considered the adoption of a joint document during the next round of six-party talks on the Korean nuclear issue, which became a significant step in freezing the DPRK's military nuclear program. This agreement would not have been possible without active cooperation between Beijing and Washington, since such cooperation is a prerequisite for further stabilization of the situation on the Korean peninsula and the establishment of lasting peace there.
In early 2007, there were some signs of improvement in U.S.-China security cooperation, which was helped by the March visit to China of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General P. Pace, which concluded with an agreement to expand bilateral and multilateral military exchanges. In June, Sheng Huazhen, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, paid a visit to the United States and met with Vice President Cheney, among others.
Of course, the Taiwan issue, which is sensitive and sensitive for both sides, also applies to the security sphere. Since 2003, Beijing and Washington, in order to stabilize the situation in the Taiwan Strait, have tried to coordinate positions towards the government of Chen Shui-bian, trying to restrain its impulses for "independence".
At the same time, the United States believes that the "Law on Preventing a split of the Country" adopted in China, which does not exclude the possibility of using force to reunite the island with the mainland, complicates the dialogue between Beijing and Taipei and does not contribute to maintaining peace and stability in the region. Beijing, on the other hand, claims that it is directed against separatist activity in Taiwan and therefore will contribute to the stable and progressive development of relations between the island and mainland China.
It is very difficult to predict how long the parties will be able to coordinate their positions on the Taiwan issue. We should not forget that China remains determined to " ensure the peaceful annexation of the island without delay." And although it focuses on peaceful unification by 99%, it is impossible to completely exclude the possibility of Beijing using the military option. Apparently, the following circumstances can tip the scales in favor of such a decision:: 1) the obvious obstruction by the Taiwanese administration of any steps on the way to unification, the endless delay in the process of rapprochement; 2) the predominance of the "hawkish" line within the leadership of the PRC, advocating "real acceleration of unification". The catalyst for this process may well be national euphoria based on the rise of patriotic feelings as a result of major breakthroughs or achievements (for example, a high-profile space success or a team victory of the PRC team at the Beijing Olympics, etc.). In any case, the PRC's efforts to solve the Taiwan problem may sharply intensify in the period after the Olympic Games ahead of the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Xinghai Revolution in 2011.
Another" sore point " in US-China relations on the Asian continent is the role and responsibility of Japan. Wen Jiabao, the Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, visited the country in April 2007 as an important step towards improving seriously damaged relations
between two countries. But the problems still remain. China hopes that the United States can encourage its closest Asian ally to publicly repent of its World War II crimes, as Germany did. Improving Sino-Japanese relations is a prerequisite for ensuring lasting peace and stability in Asia.
A separate problem in relations between the United States and China is a complex of energy security issues. Although the vector of the main political and economic interests of both countries is focused on ensuring access to world resources, they understand their energy interests differently. Ranked first in the world in terms of coal reserves, China became a major importer of this type of raw material in 2007. There is an opinion that the wasteful model on which the country's modernization is based can not only bring down its economy, but also deplete the world's resources. Such an authoritative politician as H. Kissinger draws attention to the exceptional seriousness of energy and environmental problems for China itself and its relations with the United States, who believes that their unresolved nature "can lead to a war similar to the wars of the early XX century"7.
The average annual growth rate of China's oil needs reached 47%. If such growth continues, by 2022, it will need 21 million barrels a day, i.e. as much as the United States consumes today. Therefore, China aims to sign agreements on the purchase of energy resources with all possible suppliers, including new ones, and often at prices higher than market prices. He is particularly active in those markets where competition is not so intense, concluding deals, including with those countries whose regimes are listed as "pariahs"in the United States. This is precisely the root cause of the conflict: the United States seeks to isolate such regimes, and China actually provides them with financial and economic support. Note that in 2007, the Chinese corporation Petro-China, with assets of over $ 1 trillion, came out on top among the world's oil companies in terms of capitalization, and only three companies from China and only two American ones are in the top five oil giants.
It is predicted that by 2010, China's dependence on the external market may reach: oil-58%, pig iron-52%, manganese-38%, copper-82%, lead-52%, zinc-69%, not to mention wood and natural gas.
China's maneuvers to secure access to global resources over the past few years clearly demonstrate its pragmatism, prudence, and economic and political flexibility. Since Qatar and Iran have the greatest potential for natural gas in the world, in addition to Russia, it is not difficult to predict the preservation of China's long-term interest in the Middle East region. However, at the same time, China will have to constantly take into account the American factor.
The need for new energy sources also forces China to take a leading position in the development of coastal shelf deposits in the South China Sea, and to fight for access to the resources of the countries of Central Asia and the Russian Far East. Rivalry with the United States in this area is an essential part of the broader economic and political rivalry between the two countries.
Russia's natural resources have long attracted the attention of both the United States and China. It is not difficult to foresee in the future an aggravation of the struggle for them between these countries. If the rise of China leads to an aggravation of contradictions between it and the United States and brings the parties to the brink of confrontation, America's super task will be to prevent the PRC from increasing its power at the expense of the resources of Siberia and the Far East. As for China, in order to advance its economic rivalry with the United States, it will have to seek access to these resources by any means necessary.
At the same time, in some areas, the economic interests of the United States and China may well be harmoniously combined. Together, they consume a huge and ever-increasing portion of the world's oil and are interested in lowering prices for it. Combining and synchronizing American and Chinese interests will allow these countries to coordinate countering speculation in global energy markets and eliminate the current imbalance in oil prices.
But all these are forecasts for the future, and in 2007, an important step in expanding cooperation between the two countries in the field of energy was the signing in San Francisco of the Chinese-American memorandum of understanding on cooperation in this area. The document provides for increased cooperation between the United States and China in improving the efficiency of energy consumption in the Chinese economy. The signed document expands the opportunities for American companies to export equipment and technologies to China that are not harmful to the environment.
As you know, the United States is the largest market for Chinese goods, the hypothetical loss of which would seriously affect the state of the Chinese economy, since it would be very problematic for China to quickly reorient commodity flows to other markets. This is another reason why relations with the United States are one of the main areas of Chinese diplomacy. At the same time, the development of Sino-American trade relations brings benefits not only to China, but also to the United States, since China exports mainly labor-intensive products to America, thereby creating favorable conditions for the restructuring of the American economy.
The main problem of American foreign trade, including with China, is exhaust gas-
a massive trade deficit that is constantly growing. In 2006 it amounted to more than $ 800 billion, and about a third of this amount was accounted for by trade with China. According to the US Congress of Industrial Unions, cheap imports from China pose a threat to hundreds of thousands of American jobs.
On the eve of the US-China trade talks held in May last year, a scandal broke out in the United States related to the low quality of food products imported from China, in particular animal feed. From November 2006 to August 2007 alone, the United States conducted five consecutive anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into Chinese products, directly affecting $ 860 million worth of Chinese exports.
Such vigorous measures taken by the American side caused dissatisfaction in Beijing. According to Chinese Commerce Minister Bo Xilai, some US officials and the media want to use doubts about the quality of Chinese goods in order to implement a policy of narrow trade protectionism.
June 15, US Secretary of Commerce K. Gutierrez announced tighter controls on the export to China of certain types of high-tech products and, above all, those that can be used for military purposes.
In addition to the trade spats between the US and China, a number of other conflict situations have taken place over the past year. So, the protest from the US administration caused the launch of a Chinese ballistic missile on January 11 with test purposes, which hit an old Chinese meteorological satellite that was in orbit more than 800 kilometers high. Washington's statement stressed that " the development and testing of such weapons is incompatible with the spirit of cooperation established in relations between the two countries."8. China, in turn, said that such a reaction is related to the interests of the White House's own space policy, the essence of which boils down to ensuring that the United States has superiority in space, while in every possible way preventing the emergence of worthy competitors.
On July 13, the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed "serious dissatisfaction and resolute protest" over the construction of a memorial to the victims of communism in the United States and its visit by President John Kerry. President George W. Bush, who, speaking at the opening ceremony in Washington, equated communist ideology with terrorism, referring to "millions of people who were victims of communism in the former Soviet Union and China." On October 18, the Chinese authorities protested in connection with the presentation of the gold medal of the US Congress to the Dalai Lama. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, this event "seriously undermined" bilateral relations, and the United States will have to compensate for the "terrible consequences" of what happened.
China also called on the White House to "stop interfering in the internal affairs of other states" and " take practical steps to protect China-US relations of constructive cooperation."
Among other noteworthy negative aspects in relations between the United States and China, we should also mention Washington's repeated accusations against Beijing regarding attacks by "hackers" on the Pentagon computer network, allegedly coming from specialists of the People's Liberation Army of China. In response, a Chinese Foreign Ministry official called the accusations baseless, describing them as "a manifestation of the cold war mentality." Vme-
At the same time, Beijing expressed its readiness to step up cooperation with other states, including the United States, in the joint fight against online crimes.
Although there were no high-level mutual visits during the entire past year, the two leaders met twice: in June during the G8 meeting in Heiligendam (Germany) and in early September in Sydney on the eve of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders ' summit. During these meetings, a number of critical issues were discussed, including religious freedom, climate change, the quality of Chinese products, and the problems of Iran, North Korea, and Sudan.
The November visit of US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to China was probably the most significant event in relations between the two countries in 2007. Its main result was an agreement to open a "hotline" between the US and Chinese military departments. The parties also agreed to intensify inter-army dialogue at all levels, contacts between military academies, and cooperation between armies in the field of archives and culture. It is also noteworthy that during the meeting of Chinese President Hu Jintao with R. Gates, the Chinese leader called for "approaching the common cause of developing relations between the two countries from the height of strategic interests and from the point of view of long-term interests."
At first, everything went relatively smoothly in the coming year of 2008. In January, bilateral Chinese-American contacts continued at the level of the military and foreign ministries. Timothy Keating, head of the US Pacific Command, arrived in Beijing on a working visit, where he met with Guo Boxiong, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Council of the People's Republic of China, Chen Bingde, Chief of the PLA General Staff, and Yang Jiechi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China. The American representative noted the existence of favorable conditions for expanding US-Chinese military cooperation and put forward a number of proposals for the development of contacts between the US and China through the military departments for the current year, to which the Chinese representatives reacted approvingly.
In the same January, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi met with Secretary of State Kim Jong Un. Raye and her deputy D. Negroponte, where much attention was paid to the discussion of the Taiwan problem. The two sides reiterated their mutual commitment to the "one China" policy and spoke out against any separatist actions by the Taiwanese authorities, in particular, the holding of a referendum on "Taiwan's accession to the UN". They agreed in principle on the need to further intensify contacts and interaction, strengthen mutual understanding and mutual trust, thereby contributing to new developments in relations between the two countries.
However, in February, this positive mood was overshadowed by another "spy scandal", when the US authorities announced the detention of four people who, according to them, worked for Chinese intelligence. Among those detained were a senior Pentagon analyst and three Chinese - Americans. The special interests of all the suspects included arms deals between the United States and Taiwan and the latest American aerospace developments.
The arrest of suspected Chinese spies has reignited American sentiment, echoing claims by some senior administration officials that China "along with al-Qaeda, Iran, Iraq, and Russia are among the main sources of external threats to the United States." Apparently, this trend of "ups and downs" will continue in US-China relations for the foreseeable future.
According to analysts, despite the growing activity of China at the regional and global levels, its ability to implement long-term force is limited. So
Thus, the time has not yet come for its positioning as a contender for world leadership. China's dependence on imported raw materials and food, its lack of opportunities to exert military pressure outside the Asian region, the impact of uneven development of certain regions on political stability in the country and, finally, the poverty of a significant part of the Chinese population may prevent it from achieving the status of a world superpower in the next 10 to 15 years.
The American establishment has formed two positions on the issue of future relations with China. According to the first of them, countries where democratic values prevail cannot be hostile, i.e. these states will not seek to defend their interests by force. Therefore, it is necessary to do everything possible to promote China's involvement in broad international cooperation in various areas, which can strengthen the influence of those forces that advocate pluralism within Chinese society, the development of democracy in the country, and, ultimately, ensure the dismantling of the existing socio-political system in China, which American analysts call not otherwise than totalitarian.
Proponents of the opposite view suggest that China should be viewed as an inevitable rival, against which the United States should act as it did during the Cold War against the USSR. In this regard, the desire of certain US ruling circles to prevent major changes in Asian regional structures is growing, and the desire to strengthen the existing system of American alliances and blocs in the Asia-Pacific region, which strategically restrict China's freedom of action both in this region and beyond, remains.
China's theoretical justifications for its policy in the American direction also show two different approaches. One of them, which still remains decisive, is based on the fact that the main attention of the United States is currently focused on the fight against international terrorism and a number of regimes that they do not like. For this reason, it is considered inappropriate to set ourselves the task of overthrowing the existing international order, no matter how unfair it may be. Instead, it is proposed to use the positive factors of this order to try to ensure its gradual evolution in the direction that China needs. According to the proponents of this approach, avoiding unnecessary responsibility for issues that are not directly related to its own interests, the PRC should "concentrate all its efforts on topical issues that are priority for itself, for example, Taiwan and Korea"9.
According to proponents of a different approach, " the best times for the PRC may not come." It is emphasized that the United States, taking advantage of the anti-terrorist operation, is strengthening its influence in the Middle East, which provides the bulk of China's imported oil, and also continues to strengthen in its "strategic rear" - the countries of Central Asia. In this regard, China's national security interests should prevail over the interests of development.10 The establishment of such a point of view may lead to the activation of power trends in the PRC's policy towards the United States.
According to independent experts, including Russian ones, in the future, the main directions and methods of the Chinese foreign policy strategy may be as follows:: 1) creating a zone of predominant influence of the PRC in East Asia, displacing possible competitors, primarily the United States, and turning it into a springboard for expanding Chinese influence in other regions; 2) maintaining, as far as possible, normal relations with the United States by making concessions in areas that are less important for China; 3) implementing a differentiated policy in the following areas: the main political forces in Taiwan and isolation of negative, from Beijing's point of view, external interference in the processes related to unification; 4) diversification of raw materials, primarily energy policy; 5) search for strategic points of contact, as well as forms and methods of cooperation not only with the United States, but also with other developed and developing countries countries.
It seems to us that the opportunities for improving relations between China and the United States, which appeared at the beginning of this century, are by no means exhausted. The expansion of cooperation between them can be based primarily on the mutual interest of the parties in the economic sphere. For China, the United States is a guarantee of a stable investment climate and an influx of modern technologies needed to modernize the national economy, as well as an important market for a wide range of goods. In turn, for the United States, a stable and predictable China is much preferable to a country that is in an economic crisis and torn by social contradictions. As for the existing and constantly emerging problems between them, their settlement or at least mitigation is most often quite possible on the basis of mutual compromises.
1 Kompas / / ITAR-TASS, 2006, No. 12, p. 17.
2 2005 Report to Congress of the U. S. - China Economic and Security Review Commission - www.uscc.gov
3 TV program "Postscript", 02.06.07.
4 "Rossiyskaya gazeta-Nedelya". 2007, June 22.
6 Compared to "friendly "relations with Russia and "good" relations with Western European countries and India. (Xiandai Guoji Guanxi Magazine (China), 2007, N 10).
7 People's Daily online, 04.04.2007.
Kuzyk B. N., Titarenko M. L. 9 China-Russia 2050: Strategy of co-development, Moscow, 2006, pp. 542-544.
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