The technological mode is a concept that describes not just a set of technologies, but a holistic system of interconnected productions that determines the look of the economy for several decades. The change of such modes occurs in a wave-like manner and explains why some industries decline while others become locomotives of growth.

What is a technological mode and how it works

The basis of the concept is the theory of long waves of economic conjuncture developed by Nikolai Kondratieff. The periodicity of the change of modes is usually estimated at 40-60 years. The term itself denotes a set of technologically interconnected productions that form a reproductive circuit. Each mode has a \"core\" — leading industries, and a \"key factor\" — a technology that sets the impetus for the development of the entire system.

It is important to understand that modes do not replace each other instantly. A new mode is born and gains strength within the framework of the previous one, gradually replacing it. At the same time, old productions do not disappear completely, but remain in certain regions and industries, creating a so-called multi-mode economy.

From textile machines to nanotechnology: a brief history

The first mode, which began at the end of the 18th century, relied on textile machines and water power. The second, from the middle of the 19th century, is associated with the steam engine, railways, and black metallurgy. The third (end of the 19th — beginning of the 20th century) brought electrification, heavy machinery, and oil refining. The fourth, dominating in the middle of the 20th century, is characterized by the internal combustion engine, automotive industry, precision machinery, and synthetic polymers.

The fifth mode, often called the information mode, began in the 1970-1980s. Its core is microelectronics, computing technology, telecommunications, software, and automation. It was within this mode that the modern digital infrastructure was formed, and the internet and mobile communication became everyday life.

The sixth mode: what is happening now

Today, the world is in the process of transitioning to the sixth technological mode. Its key directions are nanotechnology, biotechnology, genetic engineering, informatics, global networks, and unconventional energy. In a broader sense, the core of the sixth mode is described by the acronym MANBRIK, which unites medicine, additive technologies, nanotechnology, biotechnology, robotics, informatics, and cognitive technologies.

One of the most discussed components is the convergence of artificial intelligence and robotics. In the production sector, this is expressed in the concept of \"Industry 6.0\", where generative AI manages a swarm of robots, and human participation is reduced to setting the task. The peak of the dominance of the sixth mode is attributed by different researchers to 2030-2050 or even 2070, reflecting the uncertainty of exact timelines.

What's next

Discussions about the seventh technological mode are already underway. Its probable core is cognitive technologies, that is, systems based on consciousness modeling and the interaction of human and machine intelligence. The estimated start of the dominance of the seventh mode is 2030-2050 or later, depending on the speed of current development.

Thus, technological modes are a convenient framework for understanding long-term economic changes. They show that behind visible crises and upswings are deep changes in the technological base of society, and it is they that determine which skills, industries, and countries will be in the winning position in the coming decades.

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