L. V. GEVELING

Doctor of Political Science

Nigeria Keywords:, general elections, quasi-democracy

Presidential elections were held in Nigeria in April 2011. The new head of state is Goodluck Jonathan, who previously served as Vice President and Acting President of the country. The elections were held in a relatively calm environment, but led to a weakening of the position of the ruling People's Democratic Party, thereby exacerbating internal political contradictions.

The first decade of the new century confirmed the well - known truth that the political reality of Nigeria is a kind of "magic crystal" in which you can see the social future of many countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In Nigeria, chimeras are often transformed into genuine phenomena of public life, and shaky trends turn into full-fledged political processes. This quality is particularly important in the context of growing political instability and unstable development of the countries of the region, and indeed the entire Afro-Asian world. Another characteristic of modern Nigeria is its ability to combine seemingly incompatible vectors of political development and mutually exclusive social entities. That is why the path taken by this country is difficult to assess using scientific methods that have been developed to analyze the countries of Western Europe or, say, East Asia.

The 50-year history of Nigeria is a kaleidoscope of events that reflected the process of the fall of British colonialism and the establishment of some semblance of the Westminster model of state and legal structure, military coups and counter-coups, ethnic, religious and class conflicts, the vicissitudes of the 30-month civil war, the spread of local forms of autocracy and quasi-democracy. Nigeria's political life has been dominated by military regimes that have shaped the course of national development for almost three decades, as well as four Republics* led by civilian leaders. At the same time, one of the most significant events in the country's political history always turned out to be general elections, which were supposed to ensure the legitimate transfer of state power from military politicians to civilians (in 1979 and 1999) or become the final phase of inter-party competition under the civilian regime.

POLITICAL TRADITIONS AND PARTY PALETTE

Over the past 13 years, Nigeria has held four elections in which citizens of Africa's most populous country have traditionally chosen the President, state governors, members of the upper and lower houses of the National Assembly, and members of the 36 state legislatures. The 1999 and 2003 elections were won by former military leader Olusegun Obasanjo and his People's Democratic Party (PDP). However, Obasanjo did not dare to run for president for the third time (in 2007).

This was hindered by the relevant provision of the constitution, the tradition of alternating northerners and southerners in the post of head of state, as well as opposition within the ruling elite and voter dissatisfaction with the socio-economic situation in the country. However, a way out of the seemingly stalemate was soon found. Al-Haji Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, a little-known politician and chemist by training who was once fond of Marxism, was nominated as the ruling party's presidential candidate in the 2007 elections. His older brother was a trusted confidant of General Obasanjo in the late 1970s, who was sympathetic to the new NDP leader and probably hoped to use him to maintain control of the country.

"The administrative staff of the new Government and the active work of the ruling party allowed Yar'Adua to become the new President of Nigeria. His administration continued market-based reforms, tried to promote agricultural development and improve water supply, implemented programs to improve education standards and fight corruption. An attempt was made to resolve the conflict in the Niger Delta, and not with the help of another army-police operation, but through dialogue between the warring parties. At the same time, the new pre --

* This periodization of Nigeria's political history is conditional. Most researchers believe that the First Republic covers the period from October 1960 to January 1966, the Second Republic-from October 1979 to December 1983, the Third Republic existed in 1989-1993, and the Fourth Republic appeared in 1999 and still exists today.

Zident was less frequently seen in public, and rumors were spreading that he was seriously ill. Once Yar'Adua disappeared for a long time from the sight of even his close associates, who were at a loss to guess where the president was and what to do with the papers that came to him for signature. (It was later revealed that he had been treated in Saudi Arabia.)

In February 2010, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan succeeded in having him named " Acting President." This decision was long resisted by the inner circle of U. Yar'Adua-Muslim politicians of the North, who were very wary of a southerner who suddenly had the prospect of becoming head of state. And only their own security concerns - the threat of a military coup or political chaos-forced the Nigerian elite to give in to Mr. Jonathan. Thus, in Nigeria there were two presidents at once - "elected" and "acting". However, this situation was soon resolved (in May 2010): Yar'Adua died (more than a year before the end of his term of office), and Goodluck Jonathan became president and commander of the armed forces, according to the constitution.

The general election, without exaggeration, was the main political event in Nigeria in late 2010 and early 2011. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INIC) was responsible for the preparation and conduct of the elections. 74 million people were registered to participate in the elections. voters and 62 political parties ¹. During the 1st stage of voting, deputies of the upper and lower chambers of the National Assembly were supposed to be elected. The second stage of the election was to determine the President, who, according to Nigerian law, has very broad powers. 20 candidates decided to challenge the post of head of state. The third and final stage of voting is the election of members of the state legislative assemblies, as well as governors, who, in accordance with the Nigerian Constitution, head the vertical of executive power at the regional level.

Dozens of political parties that were officially registered by the NIC had equal rights, but far from equal opportunities. Due to limited financial resources, a shaky organizational structure, and vaguely defined goals, most of these parties initially turned out to be outsiders in the election campaign and were programmed to fail even in "their" states.

Nigerian and foreign analysts ranked three to five parties among the leaders of the electoral race. The undisputed favorite of this political marathon was considered to be the People's Democratic Party-a coalition of northern and southern political elites, claiming (though not very successfully) to be the dominant party. Some Nigerian political scientists see the NDP as a modernized version of the National Party of Nigeria ², which defined the development of the Second Republic (1979-1983).

More or less serious competitors of the NDP were the Congress for Progressive Change (CPI), the Initiative Congress of Nigeria (ICN), and the All Nigeria People's Party (GNP), which represented centrist and center - right opposition forces based mainly (but not exclusively) on the Muslim and northern electorate.

It should be noted here that as the party-political system in Nigeria has evolved, the identification of parties and political associations has become an increasingly complex problem, not only for outside researchers, but also for voters themselves. Thus, if during the First Republic (1960-1966) the differences between the ideological and political orientations of such parties as the Northern People's Congress, the Action Group, and especially the Socialist Workers 'and Peasants' Party were obvious, then during the Second Republic the social profile of the leading parties (for example, the Nigerian People's Party and the Greater Nigeria People's Party) was blurred.

Perhaps to an even greater extent, ideological and political "volatility" and organizational uncertainty characterized the parties of the Fourth Republic (it has existed since 1999). It is no coincidence that the president of the Nigerian Congress of Trade Unions, Peter Yelese, noted that political organizations without an ideological basis are more likely to act as political platforms, rather than parties in the full sense of the word. (A certain exception was probably the small Social Democratic Mega-Party, which belonged to the left flank of Nigerian politics.)

Evidence of the low level of political differentiation of the parties of modern Nigeria was their plans for the reconstruction of the country. Strictly speaking, party nation-building programs have never been a strong point of political practice in Nigeria.

This tradition was further developed during the 2011 election campaign. Party apparatuses and election headquarters did not care much about distributing manifestos and programs to potential voters. Many Nigerians complained that there was a shortage of party campaign literature in the country. Some parties were not even able to post their manifestos on the Internet in time. Due to organizational and technical failures in propaganda work, Nigerians were forced to get acquainted with the platforms of the parties on individual promises of candidates, mainly at rallies. This method of obtaining information is characterized by low efficiency, since Nigerian politicians easily promise "everything to everyone", as if guided by the "election slogan" that was voiced in the opera "Prince Igor": "Eh! If only I could be a king, I would be able to respect everyone..."

Almost all Nigerian parties have made traditional promises to fight for democracy, protect the rights and freedoms of citizens, strengthen the territorial integrity of the country, develop national culture, and ensure the security and material well-being of Nigerians belonging to various ethnic groups and faiths. Of course, the main ones for-

The national development messages contained in party documents and leaders ' speeches varied depending on which group of the Nigerian establishment the political organization represented.

Thus, the NDP manifesto emphasized the development of private initiative and free enterprise; emphasized the need for accountability and transparency of bureaucratic institutions in order to restore confidence in the institutions of State power; and guaranteed support for an independent court.³

The ruling party's ideologues insisted that minority rights and freedom of conscience should be guaranteed unconditionally in order to preserve Nigeria as a "multi-religious state." The PDP promised economic diversification, increased investment in agriculture and its technical re-equipment, accelerated development of small and medium-sized businesses, easier access to credit for the middle class, modernization of social and economic infrastructure, regulation and reform of the public sector. Given the justifiable outrage of ordinary Nigerians at the constant power outages, the NDP has prepared a road map to overcome the crisis in the industry, in which $10 billion should be invested over 10 years. annually. According to the NDP's ambitious statement, by 2020, the Nigerian economy is expected to become the leading economy in Africa and one of the 20 largest economies in the world; its growth was expected to be sustainable at least 10% per year4.

The election program of the Congress for Progressive Change promised voters changes in five key areas, namely: politics and governance, security and conflict resolution, economy and infrastructure, development of society and human capital, and environmental protection. The CPI insisted on the need for radical political reform and transparency in public administration (especially with regard to government contracts worth over 100 million naira*), the abolition of constitutional immunity for the President and Vice-President, governors and their deputies, and the construction of an impressive number of new industrial enterprises.

The leadership of the Initiative Congress of Nigeria has put forward the idea of quickly reducing unemployment by forming a new (half a million!) layers of entrepreneurs, each of whom could employ an average of four employees. In addition, the ICN planned to pay special attention to the development of healthcare, as well as to carry out military reform. In the process of restructuring the armed forces (AF), it was supposed to create well-trained mobile corps, orient the Armed Forces to more effectively fulfill their constitutional role and turn the army into a pillar of Nigeria's foreign policy initiatives. The ICN leaders emphasized that African countries, especially the western region, should be a priority in Nigeria's foreign policy strategy, as it should strengthen its membership in international organizations and resist various forms of discrimination and domination on the world stage.

The pre-election "skate" of the All-Nigerian People's Party was criticism of the current vertical of power, which was accused of corruption, power outages, dilapidated economic infrastructure, and poor medical care. At the same time, the party's headquarters hinted that these problems were largely resolved in Kano State, where the national leader of the GNP, I. Shekarau, has been the governor for several years.

It is significant that in the conditions of the Fourth Republic, the decisive reason for the separation of parties was not only and not so much the opposition of political forces along the traditional axes of "North - South", "Christians - Muslims", "rich - poor", but rather the possession of executive (and to a lesser extent - legislative) power at the federal and regional levels. The 2011 election campaign confirmed that the pattern of confrontation between the ruling and opposition forces in Nigeria largely resembles the model of competition between elites and counter-elites developed by the Italian founder of elitism, V. Pareto.

NDP GOES TO THE POLLS

In the arsenal of the ruling group, a lot of vpol was concentrated-

* In 2010 $1 = 150.88 naira.

not legitimate tools and technologies to strengthen their own ranks, as well as to fight against opposition forces. First of all, the leaders of the ruling party consolidated the NDP itself around the figure of G. Jonathan. A "gentleman's agreement" was made between the various factions to support the current president in the next general election. Apparently, the "northern" wing of the party was convinced that Jonathan would not run in the 2015 elections and would clear the way for a Northerner candidate.⁵ It was also claimed that the party congress in Abuja was dominated by a pay-and-carry approach to vote distribution. As a result, the delegates allegedly improved their financial situation, mainly due to funds controlled by the main candidate, and to a lesser extent-due to resources owned by his rival. One way or another, but in the final of the primary elections, G. Jonathan, having won 78% of the vote, was far ahead of his main competitor Atika Abubakar6.

A relatively new landmark phenomenon in the political life of Nigeria is the close and well-organized cooperation of southern politicians and traditional rulers of the North. Of course, the support of the northern emirs was not complete and unanimous, but, nevertheless, it should have provided additional votes to the PDP's electoral piggy bank. The ruling party's main counterparty in the North was probably Emir Zazzau Shehu Idris, whom the opposition accused of receiving 500 million naira to "appease" other traditional rulers. Responding to his critics, Sh. Idris categorically rejected the accusations, saying: "We don't help politicians, we bless them."⁷

The economic situation in Nigeria was also more or less favorable for the NDP's electoral prospects. Between 2007 and 2010, Nigerian GDP increased from $327.9 billion. (PPP) in 2008 to $369.8 billion in 2010. However, this is mainly due to the growth in oil exports (its production in 2009 was 2.21 million barrels per day). per day) and the increase in world prices for this energy carrier in 2010. Hoping to overcome the economy's dependence on oil, the federal government has developed and advertised an alternative project - the export of natural gas. In 2010, its proven reserves were estimated at 5.246 trillion cubic meters, production (in 2008) - 32.82 billion cubic meters, and export-20.55 billion cubic meters.⁸ The administration's plan was based on foreign experience in gas production, and the project itself was dubbed the "gas revolution"in the media.

It is estimated that GDP growth in 2010 ($2.4 thousand per capita) reached 6.8% compared to 5.6% in 2009. The country's external debt at the end of December 2010 was estimated to be $11.2 billion.⁹

President Jonathan, who has repeatedly demonstrated his commitment to economic reform, announced in 2010 the development of economic infrastructure and modernization of enterprises in the energy sector, in which the government has invested $16 billion over the past 12 years. In addition, the Administration planned to work closely with the private sector in road construction, and measures were planned to strengthen the financial sector, which was significantly affected during the global financial and economic crisis.

FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION AND CRIME

At the end of the "zero" years, Nigeria achieved some positive results in the fight against criminal crime and such an endemic social phenomenon as corruption. It is estimated that about $400 billion has been stolen or squandered from the country's oil revenues since 1960, with 100,000 barrels of Nigerian oil "disappearing" every day (!).

The administrations of O. Obasanjo10, U. Yar'Adua and G. Jonathan launched a multi-vector anti-corruption campaign, which, of course, could not eliminate this phenomenon, but indicated the intention of the leadership to bring the legislative and organizational framework for combating bribery and embezzlement in line with the requirements of the time. Thus, in 2000, the country adopted the "Law on Corruption and Related Crimes", and in 2004, Nigeria became one of four African States that joined the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative*. In Nigeria, there were several influential organizations that specialized in the fight against corruption.

* The countries that signed this document were obliged to periodically publish reports on oil production and sales, conduct audits of the oil business, which was supposed to become transparent to the media and the public.

political and economic corruption. These include the Independent Commission on Corruption and Related Crimes, as well as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFC). The latter, according to its chairman Farida Waziri, managed to return more than $⁹ billion to the treasury in three years11.

Various NGOs and voluntary societies, such as the Zero-Corruption Coalition, Enough is Enough and others, played a significant role in curbing corrupt officials and promoting an "anti-corruption culture" in the "zero years".

The specific results of Nigeria's crackdown on organized crime and corruption were the exclusion of the country from the list of countries that allow "dirty money" laundering (published by the Financial Action Task Force), and positive changes in the international ratings of "corruption perception" prepared by Transparency International employees.

One way or another, the NDP entered the 2011 elections with the image of a successful and fairly cohesive party that controlled the federal executive branch, 2/3 of the states and both chambers of the National Assembly. Under the leadership of the federal elite were law enforcement agencies and state media. The NDP also seems to have had an indirect impact on organizations responsible for holding "fair and just" elections. First of all, we should mention the Independent National Electoral Commission, which, based on the provisions of the 2011 Electoral Law, sought to organize the campaign in such a way as to avoid the confusion, abuse and blatant violations of the law typical of the 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections. It is known that President G. Jonathan established special tribunals, whose main task was to consider complaints about the conduct of general elections.¹² The election process was monitored by an international team of observers, foreign diplomats, as well as members of Amnesty International13 and other human rights organizations.

Even more important was the Government's detailed strategy and tactics for dealing with violence on the eve, during, and immediately after the election. Elections could be disrupted if armed supporters of certain parties, religious extremists (for example, members of the Islamic sect Boko Haram), fighters for the liberation of the Delta and active representatives of the criminal world simultaneously spoke out.

Considering this possibility, the national chairman of the electoral commission A. Dzhega promised that he would apply sanctions against politicians who were seen in acts of political violence or other illegal activities. The Anti-Terrorist Squad of the Nigerian Police and the State Security Service (SSS) were called upon to ensure the peaceful nature of the election and election campaigns.

General Director of the State Security Service Ye. Ikpeyong held a special meeting with representatives of registered parties in mid-March, where he bluntly stated that violence is not only a danger to the elections, but also a way to divide the country. He also noted that Nigerian politicians too often appeal to the religious feelings of voters, resort to the services of criminals and hooligans, do not disdain to use violence and even bombs. Ye Ikpeyong also spoke very unfavorably about the role of governors, who, according to him, use every opportunity to interfere with the work of opposition parties, sometimes accusing their members of illegal possession of weapons or drugs.¹⁴

Such criticism, but most importantly-a wave of very real violence-prompted state leaders to hold an urgent meeting under the auspices of the Nigerian Governors Forum in Abuja and outline measures to overcome the crisis.

The opposition parties ' assets included, first of all, playing on the confrontation between the North and the South, which was not completely eliminated even in the party elite itself. Secondly, it is an implicit violation of the principle of rotation of presidential candidates. Third, the opportunity to nominate a common candidate for the post of head of state-a Northerner. Negotiations on this issue were conducted, for example, by the CPI, GNP and ICN. The prospects for the unification of opposition parties became quite real in the event of a second round of presidential elections*.

The NDP's competitors tried to use large-scale social upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa and serious conflicts in Ivory Coast, Gabon, Burkina Faso and other sub-Saharan African States as relatively new political techniques. Using fashionable political language, the ICN leader said that a "rakite revolution"is taking place in Nigeria.¹⁵

FAVORITE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

In present-day Nigeria, as in former times, the personalities of competing political figures are the decisive factor in winning the electorate's sympathy and, ultimately, the key to winning presidential elections. In this sense, the 2011 election campaign was no exception. However, its distinctive moment was the competition of party leaders belonging to different sections of Nigerian history and different dimensions of political reality.

At the epicenter of the struggle for the right to settle in Aso Rock (the residence of the head of state) were three well - known politicians-the NDP candidate and President of the country G. Jonathan, the leader of the Congress for Progressive Change Muhammadu Buhari and the head of the Initiative Congress of Nigeria Nuhu Ribadu.

The clear favorite of the presidential race was G. Jonathan , a public figure that most Nigerians did not know existed until a few years ago. By the beginning of the election campaign.-

* To win the first round, a candidate must have received at least 25% of the vote in each of the 2/3 Nigerian states.

for journalists and gulittechnologists, the image of G. Jonathan was created, combining the features of a spoiled brat and a sophisticated pragmatist, whose rapid political career can be compared, using the words of the Nigerian political scientist Ch. Dokubo, with meteor flight. The media played up the semantics of the names of Jonathan-the first (Goodluck - "may you be lucky") and the second (Ebele - "God's will") - and the most attractive facts of his biography.

The future President of Nigeria was born in 1957 in what is now Bayelsa State, located in the oil-rich Niger Delta. His family members were of the Ijo people, professed Christianity and were engaged in the construction of canoes. However, Goodluck did not want to join the family business. Instead, he trained as a zoologist at the university, and before becoming a career politician in 1998, he worked as an educational inspector, teacher, and employee of the Environmental protection Agency.

The 1999 election brought Mr. Jonathan the position of deputy governor, which in normal circumstances does not promise a brilliant career prospects. But, apparently, Providence really intervened in his fate. Two years later, Jonathan's boss, the Governor of Bayelsa State, was removed from office on corruption charges. His place, as prescribed by law, was taken by G. Jonathan. Probably, the new governor was well established in the eyes of then-President Obasanjo, who (despite rumors in the press about the involvement of Jonathan's wife in money laundering) promoted him to key positions in the NDP. For the 2007 elections Jonathan was already running alongside U. Yar'Adua as a candidate for the post of Vice President of Nigeria.

Since taking up his new position, Jonathan has been actively involved in conflict resolution in the Niger Delta. The Vice President managed to conduct a series of successful negotiations with Delta rebel organizations (by the way, his fellow countrymen). The Vice President persuaded some of the militants to lay down their weapons and take advantage of the terms of the government's amnesty.

During President Yar'Adua's illness, and especially after his death, Jonathan proved to be an experienced negotiator, a subtle psychologist, and a statesman who knows exactly what he needs. It was then that rumors began to circulate among the Nigerian establishment that Jonathan was just a provincial fan of soft felt hats, who plays the role of a compromise figure in the NDP. It was claimed that Jonathan was an administrator, not a charismatic leader, and that he certainly would not dare to run for president in 2011. Subsequent events have shown how far from the truth these conclusions and predictions were.

BUKHARI AND RIBADU - WHO ARE THEY?

The main contender in the election and the complete opposite of G. Jonathan was 68-year-old retired General M. Buhari. This native of the northern state of Katsina has earned a reputation in Nigeria in the last third of the 20th century as a man of legend with all its pros and cons. He held a ministerial position back in the 70s in the military administration of General O. Obasanjo. However, M. Buhari's finest hour struck later, on New Year's Eve 1984, when the army deposed the government of the President of the Second Republic Sh. Step 2.

As the leader of the new regime, General Buhari embarked on a radical restructuring of Nigerian society. His 20-month rule was marked by restrictions on the rights and freedoms of citizens, a harsh attitude towards journalists, the creation of a" black list " of state figures and businessmen (500 people), and a large-scale attack on corruption and crime. A campaign called the "War on Indiscipline" has been launched in the country. Along with constructive measures to strengthen industrial responsibility and achieve order in public life, this campaign was full of obvious "excesses".

Accustomed to taking liberties with time, Nigerian officials were suddenly publicly humiliated and even fired for being even slightly late for work; soldiers lined up people in neat lines at bus stops; a minor criminal offense could result in years of imprisonment and even execution.

Buhari's government tried to implement an economic reform based on the idea of supporting local producers by restricting the import of machinery, equipment and industrial raw materials. Forced price cuts for essential goods, restrictions on spending foreign currency, and a generally poorly calculated economic strategy have led to the shutdown of Nigerian businesses and a rapid increase in unemployment. The crackdown on speculators, hoarders of goods, and black marketeers has created a myth about Buhari as an uncompromising fighter against economic wrongdoing and patron of ordinary Nigerians. These features of his political portrait have been preserved for many years, partly due to the fact that M. Bukhari was not caught in corrupt activities.

The government of General M. Buhari and his colleague Brigadier T. Idiagbon was overthrown as a result of another military coup organized by General I. Babangida. The former military leader was jailed for 40 long months. However, his political career did not end there. Already in 2003. he is contesting the presidency of his former boss, O. Obasanjo, and in 2007 seeks to beat U. Yar'Adua in the elections.

Both attempts ended in failure, which, however, did not discourage the ex-general. He publicly accuses his competitors of unfair play, sues, and in 2009 leaves the company that betrayed him (as he believes) The National Nigerian People's Party and later formed a new organization, the Congress for Progressive Change. At the same time, M. Bukhari successfully positions himself as the patron saint of talakav (poor people-yaz. Hausa) and a supporter of the establishment of Sharia law in the northern states. However, he has grown up-

This is especially true when he is classified as a radical Islamist. The leader of the CPI relies, on the one hand, on a" grand alliance "with opposition leaders, and on the other, on a secret split in the ruling party, the" northern " faction of which looks with great doubt on the figure of G. Jonathan. In addition, M. Buhari hopes with good reason that his party members will be elected governors and legislators of most northern states. Some of his plans were implemented. As you know, sometimes history repeats itself...

The most mysterious and controversial figure in the top three, perhaps, was Nuhu Ribadu. He bore little resemblance to G. Jonathan, M. Buhari, and generally traditional Nigerian politicians. N. Ribadu organized his election campaign under the banner of fighting corruption, since he was known primarily as the chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFC). Ribadou has achieved great success in this position. He has jailed seven governors, won 275 lawsuits (according to some sources, significantly more), and allegedly returned $5 billion to the state. and he expanded the staff of the commission entrusted to him to 1,600 employees. When the Delta governor tried to bribe the official by offering him two bags of $15 million, Ribado resolutely refused the bribe. [¹⁶]

Probably, it was Ribadu who helped exclude Nigeria from the" black list " of the Financial Action Task Force. According to some researchers, he actively helped Americans in the investigation of sensational corruption cases (such as Willbros and Halliburton), for which he was known as a "favorite of the West."

Opponents of the EFP chairman attributed Ribado's deliberate uncompromising attitude and high performance to the fact that he simply served as a tool for suppressing the political opponents of President Obasanjo. When the government was replaced (in 2007), the main anti-corruption fighter was out of work. Moreover, Ribado began to pose a certain threat, as he began to investigate the financial activities of supporters and financiers of the new ruling group. It soon became clear that Ribado had not declared any of his property. For this offense, he was removed from office, ostracized, but did not bring the case to court, but simply sent "to study". In 2009, Nuhu Ribadu declared that his life was under threat and went abroad, where he gave revealing lectures and interviews.

He returned to his homeland after the death of U. Yar'Adua and, as expected, was to join the support group of President G. Jonathan. However, events began to develop in a completely different scenario. N. Ribadu joined the largest opposition party - the Initiative Congress of Nigeria. The ICN was headed by former Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubi, who was once convicted of illegally using accounts in 16 foreign banks. Cooperation with such a politician could not have had a positive impact on the image of anti-corruption fighter No. 1. Neither the calls to "rebuild" the country, nor the promise to create a National Endowment for the Arts, nor the skilfully disseminated stories of Nuhu's courage and diligence, innate sense of justice and just plain pathological honesty, were saved by the situation.

In addition to the group of leaders, several colorful figures and political bonzas participated in the presidential race. Among them, former math teacher Ibrahim Shekarau stood out. At the start of the campaign, he was the current governor of Kano State and leader of the All-Nigeria People's Party. Shekarau became known as the man who suspected a foreign conspiracy to vaccinate Nigerian children against polio. He ruthlessly destroyed the contents of beer warehouses and dealt a devastating blow to Hollywood (the Nigerian equivalent of Hollywood), leaving many local film industry figures out of work.

Another figure in the election campaign was the leader of the United National Development Party, E. O. Ndok, the only woman to run for President of Nigeria in 2011. Curiously, during the election, she was even released from prison, where she was imprisoned because she was involved in operations with counterfeit checks.¹⁷ However, such candidates did not have a serious chance of achieving anything during the voting.

ELECTION RESULTS

The April elections to the Senate and House of Representatives brought an unpleasant surprise to the ruling party. Some of its heavyweights lost to candidates of opposition parties. In the southwest, in Yorubaland, the NDP's losers included House Speaker D. Bankole, three senators, and two former governors.¹⁸ In the House of Representatives

out of 234 seats, the NDP managed to get 123, the ECN - 47, the CPI - 30, the GNP - 25, nine seats went to other political parties. 45 members of the NDP, 13 of the ECN, seven of the GNP, and five of the CPI became senators; four seats in the upper house of parliament were won by people from other parties.¹⁹

The far from brilliant results of the federal legislative elections were fraught with the loss of the NDP's undivided control over the parliament. Nigerian and foreign political analysts have concluded that the ruling party has loosened its stranglehold.

On the contrary, the presidential election, which took place on April 16 in a relatively calm atmosphere, was a triumph for Mr. Jonathan and vice-presidential candidate Namadi Sambo. According to the official results of the NIC, 22.5 million people voted for G. Jonathan (59% of the electorate). His main rival M. Bukhari received 12.2 million votes (32%), and N. Ribada - 2.8 million (5.4%) ²⁰.

As expected, the northern districts with the Hausan-Fulbian population expressed their sympathy for M. Bukhari. He was supported in 12 of the 36 states in Nigeria. N. Ribadu won only in Osun State. G. Jonathan was supported by all other states (mainly southern regions, igboland and Yorubaland) plus the federal capital Territory. In some states, the share of those who voted for G. Jonathan exceeded 95% and even reached 99.63%.

(As in previous election campaigns, Buhari refused to recognize the results of the presidential election because it was held in an environment of violence, pressure from the ruling party,and frauds. The party led by him appealed to the court to annul the results of the vote and re-hold elections in 20 states of ²¹.)

Gubernatorial elections were held in 29 states. In five states, governors were already elected in 2010, and they decided not to be re-elected. In two states (Kaduna and Bauchi), voting was postponed due to unrest after the presidential election. Voter turnout at this stage of voting was relatively low22.

Most forecasts did not promise the NDP an easy victory, as the ruling party was expected to lose control of some of the states. And so it happened. The southwestern states of Ogun and Oyo elected governors-members of the Initiative Congress of Nigeria, however, the NDP managed to win Kano - the most populous state in the North.

Unprecedented precautions were taken during the voting days. The authorities ordered the closure of borders and banned movement on roads. An exception was made only for people involved in organizing elections, security personnel, and emergency management personnel. In order to avoid provocations, the Anti-terrorist police squad took the headquarters of the NIC under guard. In addition, the police authorities introduced a "vote-go-home" regime, contrary to the demand of the main opposition parties to follow the "vote-and-wait" rule ²³.

Even more severe and uncompromising was the behavior of the authorities after the victory of the NDP in the second stage of voting. The newly elected president sternly noted that he does not intend to be tolerant when people are killed, acts of political vandalism are committed, and the country is in a situation comparable to that which developed on the eve of the civil war (July 1967 - January 1970) or during the June 1993 crisis, promising to urgently form a commission to investigate the cases. after political violence, Mr. Jonathan warned citizens against further involvement in the riots ²⁴.

The 2011 national election campaign was a kind of X-ray image of Nigerian society. On the one hand, it showed the internal structure of the party subsystem and the alignment of political forces in the country. On the other hand, it revealed the "pan-African" and unique features of the political existence of this state.

* * *

The power-political model of modern Nigeria is being formed under the sign of a gradual departure from the" barbaric imitations " in the organization of political space, characteristic of the 60s-80s of the last century. Artificially created political entities do not want to take root in Nigeria and are dying out. The existence of this trend can no longer be disguised by the patrimonial foundations of Nigerian society, nor by the situation of uncertainty and "strategic instability". The principle of "political Darwinism" clearly characterizes the establishment in Nigeria of specific forms of power organization that are gaining strength beyond classical democracy and autocracy. It seems that the operation of this law leads to the degradation of the system of the dominant party, however, while maintaining the role of an administrative resource and violence at all levels of political reality. It is likely that in the medium term it will be possible to fully assess whether this trend will fade or turn into a full-scale social process.

¹ http://www.inecnigeria.org/political-parties

² www.nigermasterweb.com/blog

³ http://news.nigeriadaylynews.com/columnists/12043-what_really_are_the_parties.htm l

⁴ Ibidem.

⁵ Nigerian Tribune. 28.03.2011.

⁶ http://www.bbc,co.uk/news/world-africa-12193681. 14.01.2011.

⁷ www.allafrica.com. 22.03,2011; bbc-29.09.2010.

⁸ http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/nigeria/nigeria_economy.html

⁹ Ibid.

¹⁰ See: Geveling L. V. Kleptocracy, Moscow, 2001.

¹¹ Nigerian Tribune. 24.03.2011.

¹² Nigerian Tribune. 28.03.2011.

¹³ newsfromafrica.org. 21.03.2011.

¹⁴ The Sun. 15.03.2011.

¹⁵ Nigerian Tribune. 28.03.2011.

¹⁶ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/22/AR20090522020 25_2.html

¹⁷ Punch. 02.04.2011.

¹⁸ Punch on the web. 11.04.2011.

¹⁹ http://www.inecnigeria.org/results/

²⁰ http://www.inecnigeria.org/results/

²¹ Nigerian Tribune. 09.04.2011.

²² The Guardian. 27.04.2011.

²³ Weekly Trust. 02.04.2011.

²⁴ http://www.thisdayonline.com. 21.04.2011.

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