February 17, 2010 Center for Research on General Problems of the Modern East (CIOPSV) The Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences held a seminar on "BRIC Countries: 30 years later". Employees of the Center and other departments of the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, leading experts from the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and the Faculty of Economics of the MAI took part in its work.

Three main reports were devoted to the development problems of foreign BRIC countries-Brazil, China, and India. Presentations were made by V. M. Davydov, Director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Deputy Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Director of the Institute for Far Eastern studies S. G. Luzyanin and head. T. L. Shaumyan, Center for Indian Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The BRIC countries-Brazil, Russia, India, and China-are playing an increasing role in the global economy. The abbreviation BRIC was introduced by specialists of the American financial company Goldmansax in 2001 in order to designate the group of the largest and most dynamically developing countries and reflect the new phenomenon of the "zero" years-the increasing role of emerging market countries, and above all the BRIC four, in the world economy. Even after the term was used as a tool for analyzing new phenomena in the global economy, trends towards the development of economic and political cooperation between countries in the BRIC format increased (bilateral cooperation between countries and groups of BRIC countries developed earlier: Russia - India, Russia - China, Russia - Brazil, China-Brazil). Brazil, etc.). In June 2009, a summit of BRIC leaders was held.

The second summit of the BRIC countries with the participation of their leaders was held on April 15-16, 2010 in Brazil. They discussed the development of economic cooperation between them, including between Russia and Embraer, a Brazilian aviation company.

The seminar focused not only on the role of the BRIC in the global economy and international economic relations, but also on interstate cooperation in the BRIC format.

In his opening speech, S. A. Panarin, Head of CIOPSW, noted that the purpose of the seminar is to trace the changes that have taken place in the BRIC countries over the past three decades. For each of them, the period of radical changes in the economy is different. For China, this is obviously the period since 1978-the beginning of Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms, the policy of open doors for foreign capital. In India, economic liberalization began to take place in the 1990s. For Russia, a special stage was the period of the formation of its new statehood and market reforms after the collapse of the USSR. The increase in economic growth in Russia has been noticeable since the boom in oil prices since 2003.

In his report on Brazil's development trends, V. M. Davydov noted that two of the four BRIC countries - Brazil and Russia - show the greatest interest in cooperation in this format. Diplomatic initiatives of the Russian Federation regarding cooperation between the BRIC countries are positively evaluated in Brazil.

Brazil is one of the countries that has done this in the 20th century. a very serious path. Portuguese-speaking Latin America, in contrast to Spanish-speaking, was largely late. In the software-

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the last first university was established in 1521, in Brazil-only at the beginning of the XX century. Because of this, it was long deprived of the most important base for conducting scientific research. Now Brazil is the leader in Latin America in R & D development, a "threshold" power in the development of nuclear technologies. The country has all the prerequisites to become a nuclear power, but under the constitution it is obliged to refrain from such aspirations. In the future, Brazil hopes to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council with a reputation as a peace-loving power. The country has a stable and fairly well-functioning institutional environment, the institute of democracy. The range of deviations in political life is very small. The left spectrum is very strongly represented, and the right spectrum is weakly represented. Brazil's President, Lulu da Silva, comes from a working-class background, is a trade union leader, and has a high rating.

V. M. Davydov elaborated on the problems of Brazil's economic development. In 2007-2008, Brazil's GDP growth rate was 4-5% per year, lower than that of India and China. From 2002 to mid-2008 - a period of high economic conditions for many countries, including Brazil. External debt has been reduced, and the credit system has been sanitized. The measures taken by Brazil in response to the global financial and economic crisis are regarded by V. M. Davydov as very successful. In his opinion, the country was the last to enter and will get out of the crisis before anyone else, for which it used standard recipes: pumping liquidity into the banking system and stimulating domestic demand (less money was spent on this than in China). Brazil was able to maintain the exchange rate of the national currency and maintain the competitiveness of exports. Brazil's exports to China allowed it to maintain a positive trade balance. China became Brazil's first foreign trade partner, taking the place of the United States. Brazil, unlike Mexico, is not characterized by an exclusive orientation in foreign economic relations to the United States. The geographical structure of foreign trade is diversified, with equal shares in the United States, Western Europe, and China.

V. M. Davydov described the peculiarities of the development of the Brazilian economy. Large-scale agricultural production is actively developing: meat is produced and exported, including chicken, soy, coffee, and sugar cane. The latter is widely used for the production of ethanol. The United States and Brazil have signed an agreement on a strategic partnership in its production. To overcome the energy shortage, the construction of hydroelectric power plants and two nuclear power plants is being developed. The most impressive achievement of Brazil, the speaker called the development of the aircraft industry, the activities of the Brazilian corporation "Embraer", which ranked third in the world in the production of aircraft, specializing in the production of medium-range aircraft. In general, over the past three decades, Brazil has developed a diversified economic complex, some of which is under the control of foreign capital.

Speaking about the problems of cooperation between Brazil and Russia, Vladimir Davydov noted that Brazil has a positive balance in trade with the Russian Federation, accounting for 40% of meat imports to Russia. Russia exports mineral fertilizers to Brazil. The aircraft industry is a promising area of cooperation between the two countries. Brazil is developing cooperation with India and South Africa in the IBSA format, which is largely due to the desire to pre-empt the US advance to the South Atlantic. India and Brazil are developing cooperation in the pharmaceutical industry.

Sergey Luzyanin made a presentation on the latest trends in China's development, paying special attention to China's role in the BRIC and prospects for its cooperation in this format. The BRIC project was born, according to S. G. Luzyanin, on the basis of the RIC (Russia-India-China) project, which has existed since 2000. Some of China's interest in the BRIC is due to the fact that it positions itself as a global responsible power in contrast to the American concept of the G2 (a group of two countries - the United States and China). The RIC is beneficial for China as a Eurasian project that includes the development of transport corridors, security issues in Central Asia, and the SCO.

In recent years, BRIC countries have developed cooperation and established a dialogue mechanism. This dialogue focuses on the formation of a new global financial architecture, energy and environmental issues, and humanitarian cooperation projects. The first BRIC summit was held in Yekaterinburg in 2009. The Chinese agenda for this summit was based on eight principles proposed by Hu Jintao. These include the following points: 1) The People's Republic of China supports joint efforts to restore the economy in times of crisis; 2) China considers it necessary to reform and restructure the global financial system. At the same time, the People's Republic of China does not advocate dismantling the international-

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a native currency system based on the US dollar; 3) The BRIC can become a tool for protecting the interests of developing countries. The PRC calls itself a large developing country; 4) Food security issues play an important role for the BRIC countries; 5) It is necessary to use the advantages of the BRIC in labor markets; 6) Environmental and global climate change issues are of great importance; 7) Humanitarian cooperation is an important area of cooperation among the BRIC countries; 8) It is necessary to take into account the specifics of modernization of each of the BRIC countries.

Cooperation within the BRIC is not considered a priority by China. The American factor, its influence on the BRIC, plays an objectively restraining role in this. Cooperation with the United States is a priority (although it is not declared) for China. Another deterrent is India. Territorial disputes between the two countries have been preserved, but tensions remain high. Russia acts as a mediator. There are other international projects of great importance for China. This is cooperation with ASEAN, cooperation within the China-Japan-South Korea triangle. Cooperation with African countries plays an important role for China.

China emerged from the global economic crisis stronger. After the crisis, BRIC countries were polarized: the center - China, the golden mean - India and Brazil, and the periphery - Russia-were even more clearly distinguished. During the crisis, China supported the global raw materials market with its demand. Sergey Luzyanin elaborated on the prospects of high-tech cooperation between Russia, China and the Russian Federation within the BRIC. In China, half of high technologies are adapted to Chinese production. From the Russian Federation, only point projects can win back positions in the face of fierce competition.

Social contradictions are a negative factor in the development of the PRC. However, their severity is not comparable to the situation in neighboring countries. Social differentiation is deepening, but a common goal is set - to create a society of average prosperity. Confucianism is also very important. The core of the CCP has not been destroyed, and attempts are being made to introduce the project into the framework of democracy at the lower and middle levels, to adapt the bourgeois class, and to integrate it into the leading political stratum on the basis of patriotism. The PRC also has certain problems in the economic sphere. This is a financial "soap bubble", re-crediting of a number of industries.

Sergey Luzyanin stressed that China needs BRIC theoretically as a reserve trump card in its dialogue with the"third world".

T. L. Shaumyan dedicated her report to India and its place in the BRIC. She noted that over the past thirty years, India has become a great Asian power. India and Brazil are vying for permanent seats on the UN Security Council. T. L. Shaumyan recalled the forecasts of India's development in 1985-2010. Many of them did not come true. It was assumed, in particular, that relations with Pakistan could worsen if it tested a nuclear bomb. However, nuclear weapons tests were conducted by India itself.

Speaking about India's economic success, T. L. Shaumyan also elaborated on the difficult problems facing the country. These are primarily social problems, increasing property differentiation of the population, and the problem of poverty. India's middle class has grown in size as the economy has progressed, and some estimates suggest that it may account for as much as 1/3 of the population. However, the majority of India's population continues to live in poverty, with many living below the poverty threshold. Part of the population is not involved in the production process, and its consumption is minimal. Of course, stronger measures are needed to combat poverty.

T. L. Shaumyan will speak on India's relations with other BRIC countries. The trade turnover between India and China is growing. But there are still many problems in the foreign policy sphere (Tibet, Kashmir, China's relations with Pakistan). T. L. Shaumyan paid special attention to the relations between India and Russia. She noted with regret that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, relations with India were no longer among the priorities of the Russian Federation's foreign policy. Our trade turnover has declined dramatically. Nevertheless, Russia and India have many common interests. Suffice it to say that 70% of India's weapons require Russian spare parts. It is possible to build a nuclear power plant with the participation of Russia. The creation of joint ventures in the field of high technologies could be very important. Favorable prospects in the Russian-Indian cooperation

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Relations were outlined in early 2010 in connection with the visit of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to India.

S. A. Panarin asked the speaker whether social tension persists in the Indian countryside in the context of increasing property differentiation. T. L. Shaumyan replied that the Naxalite movement continues to be active in Orissa.

The reports sparked a lively discussion, where much attention was paid to Russia's place in the BRIC and its cooperation with other BRIC countries.

A.V. Kiva (TSIOPSV) studied Russia's relations with China and their prospects against the background of the latter's strengthening. He commented on the recent statements of Nouriel Roubini, a native of Turkey, now living in the United States, that Russia has no place in the BRIC. Then A.V. Kiva referred to the alarming forecast of future trends in the development of the Russian Federation, taking into account the excessive reliance on the export of raw materials and demographic failure, made by domestic mathematicians.

In his closing remarks, S. A. Panarin highly appreciated the reports made and expressed confidence that the discussion of the problems of the BRIC countries will continue.

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