SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT UP TO 2050
The article presents a system of forecasts of world economic development made by the method of scenario analysis, which has shown its effectiveness in solving such problems. The system includes industry-specific forecasts for population development, food and energy situation (first level), and consolidated forecasts based on first-level forecasts. Some industry scenarios clearly correspond to global ones, and some do not. A two-level system of scenarios leads to the conclusion that the direction of development of globalization is an important factor in the future until 2050. New industrialization in the West, the development of new technologies and demographic aging of the population and its natural decline, the increase in internal conflicts in the implementation of multiculturalism policies in Europe and North America can push the West to isolationism. Keywords: scenario forecasts, two-level forecasting system, demographic development, food situation, energy. page 147When analyzing complex systems, both technical and social, scenario analysis has proven to be an effective forecasting method. Originally developed for predicting scientific and technological progress, the scenario forecasting method has become widely used in economics, sociology, and political science due to the fact that it allows you to give a more or less complete picture of the development paths of the socio-economic system under study in the form of several images of the future. Quantitative methods with greater accuracy and specification of deadlines, which provide quantitative calculations, do not give such a complete picture of the future. Among the major works on the study of the future using a scenario approach, we can single out the international study of the Post-Crisis World Foundation "Perspective 2050. New Political and Economic Map of the World", prepared in February-May 2013. [Perspektiva-2050, 2013]. The Post - Crisis World Research and Social Design Foundation (Post-Crisis World Fo ... Read more
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29.11.2024 (14 days ago)
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