LONG-TERM POPULATION FORECAST AND PROSPECTS FOR CIVILIZATIONAL INTERACTION
1term population forecasting is gradually becoming part of the practice of social sciences. The UN Population Department regularly publishes such forecasts for countries, major regions, and the world as a whole. Verification of forecasts made by the UN earlier shows a fairly high degree of reliability. The results of demographic forecasts are used to analyze development prospects in a wide variety of areas, since the population is both the main producer of goods and services, and the main consumer of natural resources. Identifying "bottlenecks" in the economy of the future provides a basis for forecasting in the field of politics and in the social sphere. A significant limitation is that the commonly used demographic forecasting methodology is quite complex and makes it difficult to conduct research in other disciplinary areas (economics, sociology, etc.) and perform similar calculations. The article presents the results of calculations based on the method developed by the author and tested by time. The possibilities of long-term forecasting of processes related to population growth are shown. On this basis, the tasks that arise in related branches of social science in long-term forecasting are formulated. POPULATION FORECAST The population size in this forecast is calculated according to the author's method of changing the modes of demographic development (operational description of the demographic transition).2. This methodology is based on identifying several ways of demographic transition, i.e. development from high birth and death rates to low ones. After the demographic transition is completed, the death rate begins to exceed the birth rate due to the aging of the population - an increase in the proportion of elderly people with an increase in average life expectancy and a low birth rate. The demographic transition calculated by the method of changing modes of demographic development is described in connection with the socio-economic development of the populat ... Read more
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New-York, United States
15.07.2024 (109 days ago)
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