The first thing that causes me to publish the discussion materials is a feeling of gratitude to the editorial board of the magazine "Vostok (Oriens)", which organized a very interesting discussion, and to all its participants for very informative materials that are valuable both for me as the author of the article discussed, and for readers regardless of the discussion about the forecast. The second is joy and enthusiasm, because the topic proposed for discussion, which is complex, controversial, and perhaps not particularly popular today, has attracted the attention of well-known Orientalists who have achieved recognized results in various fields of Oriental studies. The third is the hope that long-term forecasting tasks will attract the attention of researchers and publishers, and this will help coordinate the efforts of those who study the future. A single effort in this area, of course, can not claim to be valid and certain judgments about the future. They can only form the basis of group work, which will involve researchers of different profiles, united by one task - to predict possible development options, assess their probability and desirability, and then start working on developing strategies that will avoid existing and potential threats and point the way to an acceptable future. Key words: demographic forecast, population, civilizations. WHAT THE PANELISTS WROTE ABOUT Yu. G. Alexandrov's presentation 1 is mostly devoted to analyzing the possibilities of long-term forecasting and prospects for providing economic growth with resources, primarily energy resources. V. A. Melyantsev focuses on the methodological aspects of forecasting and analyzes mainly those aspects of economic growth. See: Oriens. 2009, N 4, 2010, N 2; 2010, N 3. 1 Panelists ' presentations are reviewed in the order in which they are published in the journal. page 102its aspects that are related to economic growth and development, and long-term changes in the economy. In his speech, A. O. F ... Read more