Article by A. V. Akimov, as well as his book " 2300 year. Global problems and Russia " arouse great interest. In the article, which in condensed form sets out the main (not all) content of the book, the author identifies three aspects of the topic of the future development of mankind. First, the demographic process itself, which is studied for a long-term perspective (three centuries), then the forecast of fuel and energy needs, where demographic series act as independent variables, as well as calculations of water and land resources to meet future food needs, and finally, various scenarios of civilizational interaction in the future in the light of the growing intensity of international relations. migration issues and with a focus on the interaction of European civilization with non-European ones. The topics raised in the article are by and large inexhaustible, and we should thank the editorial board of the magazine "Vostok (Oriens)" for organizing the discussion on them. I was most interested in the first and last of the selected plots. To begin with, I would like to recall that when Alexander Vladimirovich Akimov, invited to work at the Institute of Oriental Studies by the well-known Russian demographer Yaropolk Nikolaevich Guzevaty, made his first reports at the interdepartmental group on population problems in the early 1980s, it seemed to some of us who participated in the discussions that the demographic process and the forecast of its changes were too much they are strictly linked to socio-economic characteristics. The criterion of correlation of socio-economic and demographic variables chosen by the author and his former colleagues at the Central Economic and Mathematical Institute seemed somewhat conditional. It was about the ratio of the number of people employed outside of agriculture and the total population. Despite the criticism, A.V. Akimov remained true to his methodology, improved it over time, and made a large number of original calculations, the ... Read more